, ...
-
5.
1. . . . .
2. . .
3. : . .
4. .
. ,
, . , , .
(population POP) : (labour force - L) (non-labour force - NL).
POP = L + NL
, . : 1) 16 ; 2) , ; 3) , ; 4) .
, . , , , , .. :
- ( )
- ( , , )
- ( , )
- ( )
- , , .
(
, , , , ).
,
, , , .. . :
(employed - E) , , ,
, ( ). , : 1) ; 2) ; 3) ; 4) - . , , .
|
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(unemployed - U) , ,
. , , .
, :
L = E + U
( , ,
, , . , , .)
, . , .
, . , . , . , . (, ), , , , . , , ( ; ; ). ( ) , , , .
. (rate of unemployment - u) ( ), :
u = U/L × 100% u = U/(E + U) × 100%
(labour force participation rate), ( 16 ) , :
= × 100%
, .
. . : 1) (); 2) ;
3) .
|
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: , .
( - )
. , , , . , . ( ). , , .
:
- ;
- ;
- ;
- , ;
- ( );
- .
,
( , , ), , ( , , ).
:
u . = (U./L) × 100%
(structural shifts)
, :
- , , , , , ;
- , - - , , , - , , , , , . , . , , , , , , , -, . , , , , . , , , .
. , . , , , , , , - , .
, :
u . = (U./L) × 100%
, , .
|
|
, , , . - , , .
, , . (full-employment rate of unemployment) (natural rate of unemployment u*). , , , . , , (natural output) (Y*). , , :
u* = u . + u . = [(U . + U.)/L] × 100%
- NAIRU (non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment). .
.5-1.
trend
D
()
, , ( ). , , ( D). ( ), , . , . ( ), ( ), .
. , 60- 4% , 6%-7%. , , :
- ;
- ;
- ;
- .
. , , , , , , .
|
|
, . ( .5-1) ( D .5-1). , .
, . , ()
, , . , , , ( D .5-1). ( ), .
( + + ) :
u .= (U/L)× 100% = [(U . + U. + U.)/L] × 100% = u . + u . + u .
, :
u .= u* + u .
, , , .
. , , .
, , .
, -, , -, .
, , , , ( ) - , , .. ( ), .
, , , . , , ( ), , . , , , . , . , , , , , , .
, ( ) , , .
, . , . , ( ). () (GDP gap) (Y) (Y*) :
|
|
Y - Y*
GDP gap = ---------- × 100%
Y*
( ) , 60- ., (A.Okun). , , .
Y - Y*
---------- × 100% = - b (u - u*)
Y*
, . u , u* - , (u - u*) , b - (b > 0), , ( ), 1 . , . , , 2.5. . , , : , .
, . A.:
Yt Yt - 1
----------- × 100% = 3% - 2 (u t - u t - 1)
Yt - 1
(Yt) (Yt 1). u t , u t 1 - , 3% - ( : ) , ) ) - ); 2 , , 1 . () , .
, ( , 3%) ( 2), , , , , , :
(u t - u t - 1) = - ½ ×
. , . , , .
:
- ;
- ( )
:
- ( , );
- .
:
- ;
- .
:
- () , , , , ;
- .
6.
.
1. . .
2. .
3. .
4. .
. (inflation - inflatio,
) .
:
. , , , ;
. . -: , , . , .
, , (deflation) .
(desinflation), .
( ) (rate of inflation - p), ( ) (P t) ( ) (P t 1) :
P t - P t 1
p = × 100%
P t 1
, , .
. .
() , :
, 10% . 3-4% , (natural rate of inflation);
, , ;
, , 200-300% (, ) ;
, , 40-50% 1000% . 1922- 1924 . 1012 ( 1945 1946 .), 3.8 × 1027 198 .
. , :
(demand-pull inflation), . (, , ), . , , ( . 3). , , : . ( ) , - , , , . , , .
( ) (.6-2 ()), ( ) (.6-2 ()).
.6-2.
) )
AD2 AD1 AD2 LRAS
AD1 SRAS 2
2
1 1
Y1 Y2 Y Y* Y
( 1 2)
( Y1 Y2). () Y*. , . , ( , ..), .
(cost-push inflation), , , , . (.6-3) ( Y1 Y2) ( 1 2).
.6-3. ()
AD SRAS2
2 SRAS1
1
Y2 Y1 Y
. , :
(expected) ;
() (unexpected) .
.
() , . , , , , . , .. , , 1/ , .. (value) , , . , $5 ( = $5), 1/ 1/ 5 . , 1/5 . , $10 ( = $10), 1/10 .
, ( ), . , . , , , , , . , , () . , (run from money). , . , 1923 ., : , , , , , , , , , ; , , .
. , , . : , .
:
(shoeleather costs)
(transaction costs) . (transaction). . , , , , , . , , , , , , ... , , , .. , ( ), . , . , ;
(menu costs) - -.
: ) , , , ; ) ; ) . ;
(relative-price variability and the misallocation of resources). , , ( ), , - , . , , , , . , , , . , , . , , ;
, ,
(inflation-induced tax distortions). , , , , , , , . :
- (apital gains), , , , . . , $20, $50. , , , $30 ($50 $20), $10, $40 ($20 × 2), , , . $10 ($50 - $40), $30 , . $10 ;
- , , ( ) ., , $100 5% ($5), 10%, , 15%, $115, $15 ( $10 , .. 10% $5 . ( ) , .. $15. , $5. , , , . , , , . , , .
, , ,
(confusion and inconvenience). , . , , , (, , ..). , . , 1 , 50 . . ( , , 1 , 50 ). , , , .
, .
. , (expected) (unexpected).
, . . , , . , ( ).