- ()
() :
- . . , ..
(.) | (.) | ||
1 - | 2 - | 3 - | 4 - |
.
646 769 788 859
- . . , .. . - , 1 . .
3- | 3- | 5- | 5- | ||
- | - | ||||
- | |||||
- | |||||
- | - | ||||
, .
, . , .
- . :Yt = f (t)
:
,
( 2-, 3- . )
0 ;
t .
:
-
t- , .
|
|
, (t=0) .
(,6), t- -5 -3 -1 +1 +3 +5
(,5), t :
-2 -1 0 +1 +2
t= 0,
0 = ----
n
1 = ----
t- | t- | ||
-2 | -3 | ||
-1 | -2 | ||
-1 | |||
. (y) | t | t2 | ty | yt c | y-yt | (y-yt )2 | |
13.3 | -2 | -26.6 | 13.02 | 0.28 | 0.08 | ||
13.5 | -1 | -13.5 | 13.94 | -0.44 | 0.19 | ||
14.8 | 14.86 | ||||||
16.1 | 16.1 | 15.78 | -0.32 | 0.10 | |||
16.6 | 33.2 | 16.7 | -0.1 | 0.01 | |||
- | 9.2 | 74.3 | - | 0.38 |
0 = 73.5: 5 =14.86 1 = 9.2:10 =0.92
2005-2009
yt c =14.86+ 0.92 t
t,
2005 y1 c =14.86+ 0.928(-2) =13.02
2006 y2 c =14.86+ 0.92 (-1) =13.94
2007 Y3 c =14.86+ 0.92 *0 =14.86
2008 Y4 c =14.86+ 0.92 *1 =15,78
2009 Y5 c =14.86+ 0.92 *2=16.7
, . (), , . Ÿ
= 0.275 ..
=0,275: 14,86 =0,0185*100 =1,85%