1). Mb 1= . ( ).
yi = β 0 + β 1 xi + ε, (4.11)
Mb 1 = =
= .
Mb 0 = .
г (4.6) .
:
Db 1= .
(4.7) . . 3) , x, h Cov (x, h) Cov (x, h) = xh x h. .
1. x Cov (x, x) = Dx.
2. x, h, x 1, x 2, h 1, h 2 1, 2
Cov ( 1 x 1+ 2 x 2, h) = 1 Cov (x 1, h) + 2 Cov (x 2, h),
Cov (x, 1 h 1 + 2 h 2) = 1 Cov (x, h 1) + 2 Cov (x, h 2).
3. D (x, h) x, h, x 1, x 2, h 1, h 2, ( (i, j) D (x, h) Cov(xi, hj)); , . D (x, h) = D (x, h) , .
3) . Y = (y 1, y 2,..., yn)' n - - , = , = . , = Y, b 1 = Y. DY = σ 2 I, I n ´ n. , 3. ,
Cov (, b 1) = Cov (Y, Y) = (DY) ' = = 0,
(4.8) . , , :
Db 0 = D ( ) = D + 2 D = =
= , (4.7). (4.9), , :
Cov (b 0, b 1) = Cov ( b 1 , b 1) = Cov (, b 1) + Cov ( b 1 , b 1) = Cov (b 1, b 1) = = Db 1.
2).
, (2.10) (4.8),
D ŷ 0 = D [ + ( 0 ) b 1] = D + ( 0 )2 D b 1.
(4.5) (4.7). , ŷ 0 , 0 .
4.2. . , e (2.3) () s 2:
e Î N (0, s). (4.12)
, , , E = (e 1, e 2,, e), ei = yi (β 0 + β 1 xi), i = 1,2,, n, , (4.12). , D (E) E s 2 :
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D (E) = = s 2 In, (4.13)
In n ´ n.
Y , Y = (y 1,, yn). , β 0 + β 1 xi ,
D (Y) = D (E). (4.14)
(4.12) . , , .
4.2.1. . , s 2, c2
n 2 , :
RSS / s 2 Îc2 n 2,
RSS = S(yi ŷi)2.
4.2.2. . , () q c2 m . / m q.
ð ij, x / q c2 m, M (x / q) = m, M (x / m) = q. ð
RSS /(n 2) = S 2. (4.15)
4.2.3. . S 2 s 2:
M S 2 = s 2 (4.16)
4.2.4. . , (4.16) x ( (2.3).
4.2.5. .
b 0 = S 2, b 1 = S 2 (4.17)
Db 0 Db 1 .
4.2.6. . (4.12)
, (4.18)
, (4.19)
tn 2 n 2 .
4.2.7. . 1 α /2
tn 2.
B 0 = [(b 0 ],
B 1 = [(b 1 ],
α b 0 b 1 .
ð (4.18), (4.19) , F (up) = p, F , up p. ð
4.2.8. β 0, β 1.
: β 0 = b 00 : β 1 = b 10, b 00 b 10 . . b 00 B 0, , . .
, , (, ) 䳿. , T (b 0) (T (b 1)) (4.18) ((4.19)) β 0 = b 00 (β 1 = b 10). 1 α /2 tn 2. ³ , . , , T (b 0) (, T (b 1)) ( ¥, ) È (, + ¥). { bi ³ bi 0} ({ bi £ bi 0}), i Î {0,1}, (, + ¥) (( ¥, )
b 10 = 0 ( { β 1 = 0}. . , , y x ( (2.3)).
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4.2.9. . , , Statgraphics 3.0, . , , P - (P -values). , () P - , , T (b 0) (, T (b 1)) , . P - . , P - , . , P - b 10 = 0 b 1. , , , , P - .