= -/ 5X-3X, 2X = 1000, X=500, = 3*500 = 1500, = 2*500 = 1000
= /, = 1000/2 = 500
16 ( 15). 5 20, 40, 50, 60 70 .$ . , , 15, 5, 8, 3 10 .$ , WACC = 12% ( VN = FCFN/WACC).
: 5 35 42 57 60
5/1,12^1+.... = 132,531
Vn = 60/0,12 = 500
= 500+132,531 = 632,531 .
17 ( 15). . 5 . 10 .. 3 . . , 40% 60% . 10%, 15%. (WACC) NPV .
WACC = 0,1*0,8*0,6+0,4*0,15 = 0,108
NPV = PV-I = 11,144-10 = 1,144 -
18 ( 15). , , 250, 285. ( ). α =0 (, ).
1 - () 40% | 2 () 30% | 3 () 30% | |
1. . | - 40 | ||
2. . | |||
3. . |
/ = 250/285 = 0,88 -
1: -1 5,8 6,67
2: 0 5 6
3: 1,75 3,33 4
-1 0 1,75, 1,75 - 3
19 ( 15). . - 2 : Z = - 0,3877 - (1,0736) * 1 + 0,0579 * 2 (: 1= /, 2= /, (Z) = 1/ (1 + exp (- Z)). 128 ., 98 .., 84 . ., 44 . . .
= - = 30-44 = -14 . <0
1 = / = (128-98)/44 = 0,75
2 = / = 84/44 = 1,9
Z = -1,08289 <0, , 50%, ,
P(Z) = 25,3%
= 30/44 = 0,68 -
/ = 84/128 = 0,65 -
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= -14 .. < < 0,
20 (15.) 3 . . VaR 99% ( 3σ), , β 0,15 ( ), 6%, σ ( ) 25%.
= 0,15*0,25 = 0,0375
= 3*0,0375 = 0,1125
VAR = 0,1125 - 0,06 = 0,0525
= 3000000000*0,0525157 = 157,5 . .
21 ( 15). 3 3 . ( . ., 300 . , 270 . ).
1 () 20% | 2 () 50% | 3 () 30% | |
1. | - 30 | -10 | |
2. | - 10 | ||
3. | -5 | -5 | -5 |
1: -6 - 5 + 15 = 4
2: 2+ 0 + 0 = 2
3: -0,25-0,1 -0,17 = - 5
1 , = / = 1, 2
22 ( 15). CVP , 10%, 100 . =100, = 2.100 7.000, .
100 , 110.
= 2100/(1-7000/11000) = 5833
= 5167 = 11 000 - 5833
= 11 000 -7 000 - 2 100 = 1 900
23 ( 15). 2500, 15000, 5000, 25. 10%. , 10% 20% .
1
= 5000/ 1 - (15000/56250) = 6849
= (41250+5000)/41250 = 1,12
2
= 5000/1-(15000/50000) = 7143
= (35 000+5 000)/35 000 = 1,14
1, 36250, - 30000
24 ( 15). :
, . . | 1 | 2 |
- | - | |
, , -, (+)/, ,
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