, , . . , :
1. :
, (3.11)
; , ; n ; m .
2. :
. (3.12)
3. (MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error):
. (3.13)
4. MASD Mean Absolute Derivation):
. (3.14)
5.
, (3.15)
; .
6. F- :
: . (3.16)
, . , , .
, (. 3.3.). , (3.15).
F - t - .
F - , . , , , . .
, .
. (. . 3.18) , F - STATISTICA. Statistics/Probability Calculator/Distributions (. 3.27). F(Fisher), (1-Cumulative p), p ( ) 0,05 ( 95%), df1 ( , 2), df2 ( , 8) Compute. F F - ( 4,458970) (. 3.28). , (. . 3.18).
|
|
, .
.
. 3.27. Statistics/Probability Calculator/Distributions
. 3.28.
, ..:
0: =0, 0: =0.
t -, () S:
, (3.17)
= 0 = 0,
, , (3.18)
: = ; : = .
t - ( α . , .. , t > t .
t - (. . 3.17) , . t - , t (Student). (1-Cumulative p) Two-tailed, p ( ) 0,05 ( 95%), df Compute. t t - ( 2,306004) (. 3.29). t 5,66455 10,08865, .
.
. 3.29.
. , , . , , . , , .
:
1) , ;
2) F - Regression .
, ( ), (. 3.3)
|
|
3.3
0,927 | + | + | |||
2- | 0,932 | + | - | ||
0,802 | + | + | |||
0,893 | + | + | |||
3- | 0,933 | + | - |
, 3- , 2- 3- . , , .