.
:
: ()
:
- -
:
1 -11 | ______________________ | .. |
:
..., | .. | |
: ____________________ | _____________________ |
, 2012
充...3
1. 腅....4
2. 煅.5
3. ( ).6
4. ( )..8
5. 腅10
6. .11
充.14
, .
1996 . , 2.5 , .
2010 2012 , , , .
1
(. .) | |
0,683517 | |
0,643651 | |
1,016982 | |
0,986471 | |
0,8892 | |
1,209581 | |
1,074015 | |
0,891381 | |
0,938443 | |
0,915488 | |
0,950892 | |
1,232735 | |
0,906469 | |
1,073643 | |
1,13593 | |
1,142673 | |
1,25 | |
1,143 | |
1,417181 | |
1,23 | |
1,12 | |
1,135369 | |
1,08 | |
1,092 |
, y. y. 1,048 . . 0,34. = 11,56% , 65%.
. x y. y= 1.048 x=6.5
Excel
XY
3.5 0.17
|
|
54.25% 16.92%
, .
y=ax+b
:
y(x) = 0.1734596x + 0.935527136
=0.1734596 b=0.935527136
Sa=0.01 Sb=0.075
R2 -.
y(x) = 0.1734596x + 0.935527136 0,173 0 y.
y(x) = 0.129609x(b=0) 0,805. 1, .
F-. Excel
t= 0.68, t= 9,77
t. >tkp > 2, .. = 0.129609
( ).
const.
2
()=+b | y |
0,952873096 | -0,269356096 |
0,970219056 | -0,326568056 |
0,987565016 | 0,029416984 |
1,004910976 | -0,018439976 |
1,022256935 | -0,133056935 |
1,039602895 | 0,169978105 |
1,056948855 | 0,017066145 |
1,074294815 | -0,182913815 |
1,091640774 | -0,153197774 |
1,108986734 | -0,193498734 |
1,126332694 | -0,175440694 |
1,143678654 | 0,089056346 |
0,952873096 | -0,046404096 |
0,970219056 | 0,103423944 |
0,987565016 | 0,148364984 |
1,004910976 | 0,137762024 |
1,022256935 | 0,227743065 |
1,039602895 | 0,103397105 |
1,056948855 | 0,360232145 |
1,074294815 | 0,155705185 |
1,091640774 | 0,028359226 |
1,108986734 | 0,026382266 |
1,126332694 | -0,046332694 |
1,143678654 | -0,051678654 |
y 1,0482 y. const 0,637.
const
3
()= | y |
0,129609216 | 0,553907784 |
0,259218432 | 0,384432568 |
0,388827648 | 0,628154352 |
0,518436865 | 0,468034135 |
0,648046081 | 0,241153919 |
0,777655297 | 0,431925703 |
0,907264513 | 0,166750487 |
1,036873729 | -0,145492729 |
1,166482945 | -0,228039945 |
1,296092162 | -0,380604162 |
1,425701378 | -0,474809378 |
1,555310594 | -0,322575594 |
0,129609216 | 0,776859784 |
0,259218432 | 0,814424568 |
0,388827648 | 0,747102352 |
0,518436865 | 0,624236135 |
0,648046081 | 0,601953919 |
0,777655297 | 0,365344703 |
0,907264513 | 0,509916487 |
1,036873729 | 0,193126271 |
1,166482945 | -0,046482945 |
1,296092162 | -0,160723162 |
1,425701378 | -0,345701378 |
1,555310594 | -0,463310594 |
y 0,843. y, . const. 5,25.
( )
const.
(x)=b*ax
4
Y(x)=ax | y |
0,928362247 | -0,244845247 |
0,94649846 | -0,30284746 |
0,964988977 | 0,051993023 |
0,983840719 | 0,002630281 |
1,003060743 | -0,113860743 |
1,022656244 | 0,186924756 |
1,042634557 | 0,031380443 |
1,063003161 | -0,171622161 |
1,083769679 | -0,145326679 |
1,104941886 | -0,189453886 |
1,126527708 | -0,175635708 |
1,148535223 | 0,084199777 |
0,928362247 | -0,021893247 |
0,94649846 | 0,12714454 |
0,964988977 | 0,170941023 |
0,983840719 | 0,158832281 |
1,003060743 | 0,246939257 |
1,022656244 | 0,120343756 |
1,042634557 | 0,374546443 |
1,063003161 | 0,166996839 |
1,083769679 | 0,036230321 |
1,104941886 | 0,030427114 |
1,126527708 | -0,046527708 |
1,148535223 | -0,056535223 |
1,034 y . const 24,83.
|
|
const
5
Y(x)=ax | y |
1,008138602 | -0,324621602 |
1,016343441 | -0,372692441 |
1,024615055 | -0,007633055 |
1,03295399 | -0,04648299 |
1,041360791 | -0,152160791 |
1,049836012 | 0,159744988 |
1,058380209 | 0,015634791 |
1,066993944 | -0,175612944 |
1,075677783 | -0,137234783 |
1,084432297 | -0,168944297 |
1,09325806 | -0,14236606 |
1,102155652 | 0,130579348 |
1,008138602 | -0,101669602 |
1,016343441 | 0,057299559 |
1,024615055 | 0,111314945 |
1,03295399 | 0,10971901 |
1,041360791 | 0,208639209 |
1,049836012 | 0,093163988 |
1,058380209 | 0,358800791 |
1,066993944 | 0,163006056 |
1,075677783 | 0,044322217 |
1,084432297 | 0,050936703 |
1,09325806 | -0,01325806 |
1,102155652 | -0,010155652 |
1,054 y . const. 25,30.
, , .
y= b*a^x
2 :
1) const. y(x) = Y(x)=0,91*1,019535707x (R2 = 0,172)
2) const. y(x)=1,008113x (R2 =0.108)
.
const, 80,5%. y(x) = 0.129609x 1
.
1) ( y(x) = 0.0163x+0.8447 R2=0.4216)
2)
6
0,861 | 2,956483 |
0,8773 | 3,245045 |
0,8936 | 3,120409 |
0,9099 | 3,399616 |
0,9262 | 3,745583 |
0,9425 | 3,673897 |
0,9588 | 4,058159 |
0,9751 | 4,489489 |
0,9914 | 4,691122 |
1,0077 | 4,962773 |
1,024 | 5,176065 |
1,0403 | 5,142917 |
0,861 | 5,717879 |
0,8773 | 5,7994 |
0,8936 | 5,985809 |
0,9099 | 6,227762 |
0,9262 | 6,36913 |
0,9425 | 6,724826 |
0,9588 | 6,699341 |
0,9751 | 7,135217 |
0,9914 | 7,493913 |
1,0077 | 7,72724 |
1,024 | 8,031304 |
1,0403 | 8,268 |
0,861 | |
0,8773 |
3) y .
4)
5)
6)
7) ,
8) 2.
2, , .
3 , .
2
3
2 . . , const.
. , .
|
|
. .
___ _____________ 20__ .
__________________________ ___________________________
( ) (.. )