1. .
, 1(t), , . 2(t). y (t).
()- 90% , 98% .
.
, (1).
, , Q0texp(-λ*t)+C(y).
.
1, 2- ,
d- ,
b- ,
g02- . ,
g20- . ,
g10- .
1. ( 1) .
( ) - .
1(0)=90000 2(0)=10000 y (0)=50000.
(1)=300 Q0=1500
λ=3 C(y)=50.
1=0,05 2=0,01
d=0,01 b=0,25
g02=0,0002 g20=0,00019 g10=0,0001
2. ( 2) .
1(0) 2(0) 1(0)+2(0), .
1(0)+ 2(0)=100000 y (0)=50000.
(1)=300 Q0=1500
λ=3 C(y)=50.
1=0,05 2=0,01
d=0,01 b=0,25
g02=0,0002 g20=0,00019 g10=0,0001
3. ( 3) .
1(0) 2(0) 1(0)+ 2(0), .
1(0)+ 2(0)=100000 y (0)=50000.
(1)=300 Q0=1500
λ=3 C(y)=50.
1=0,05 2=0,01
d=0,01 b=0,25
g02=0,0002 g20=0,00019 g10=0,0001
4. ( 4) .
R3, , g20 g20=z0t+z1, g20.
1(0)=70000 2(0)=30000 y (0)=50000.
(1)=300 Q0=1500
λ=3 C(y)=50.
1=0,05 2=0,01
d=0,01 b=0,25
g02=0,0002 z0=0,00008 z1=0,00019
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g10=0,0001
5. ( 5) .
(g10,g20)Î[0,0001; 0,0003]´ [0,0001; 0,0003].
1(0)=70000 2(0)=30000 y (0)=50000.
(1)=300 Q0=1500
λ=3 C(y)=50.
1=0,05 2=0,01
d=0,01 b=0,25
g02=0,0002
6. ( 6) .
1(0) 2(0) 1(0)+2(0),
1(0)+ 2(0)=100000 y (0)=50000.
(1)=300 Q0=1500
λ=3 C(y)=50.
1=0,05 2=0,01
d=0,01 b=0,25
7. ( 7) .
1(0) 2(0) 1(0)+2(0), (1/4 )
1(0)+ 2(0)=100000 y (0)=50000.
(1)=300 Q0=1500
λ=3 C(y)=50.
1=0,05 2=0,01
d=0,01 b=0,25
4. ( 8) .
(a1,a2)Î[0,01; 0,05]´ [0,01; 0,04].
1(0)=70000 2(0)=30000 y (0)=50000.
(1)=300 Q0=1500
λ=3 C(y)=50.
d=0,01 b=0,25
g02=0,0002 z0=0,00008 z1=0,00019
g10=0,0001
g20=0,00019
2. .
N .
S(t)- , ,
I(t)- ,
R(t)- .
S(t)+I(t)+R(t)= N.
, I(t)>C0, S(t) ( a) S(t). .
(), R(t) ( b- ) I(t).
, , ( I(t)), I(t) S(t) R(t) .
1. ( 9) .
( ) - .
S(0)=420000 I(0)=30000 R(0)=0
C0= 10000 a=0,2 b=0,1
2. ( 10) .
I(t), I(t) aÎ[0.1;0.2]
S(0)=420000 I(0)=30000 R(0)=0
C0= 25000 b=0,1
3. ( 11) .
( I(t)) (a,b)Î[0.1;0.2]´ [0.1;0.2].
S(0)=430000 I(0)=20000 R(0)=0
C0= 20000
4. ( 12) .
( ) - , a
a=a0t+a1,
S(0)=420000 I(0)=30000 R(0)=0
C0= 25000 b=0,1 a0=0.025
a1=0.1
5. ( 13) .
( ) - , b
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b=b2exp(b3t).
S(0)=420000 I(0)=30000 R(0)=0
C0= 25000 a=0,1
b2=0.1 b3=0.05.
6. ( 14) .
( ) - , b
b=b0t+b1,
S(0)=420000 I(0)=30000 R(0)=0
C0= 25000 a=0,1 b0=0.025
b1=0.1
7. ( 15) .
I(t), I(t) bÎ[0.1;0.2]
S(0)=420000 I(0)=30000 R(0)=0
C0= 25000 a=0,1
8. ( 16) .
( ) - , a
a=a2exp(a3t).
S(0)=420000 I(0)=30000 R(0)=0
C0= 25000 b=0,1
a2=0.1 a3=0.05.
9. ( 17) .
( I(t)) aÎ[0.1;0.2], C0= 20000e-0.01t
S(0)=430000 I(0)=20000 R(0)=0 b=0.01
10. ( 18) .
( I(t)) bÎ[0.1;0.2], C0= 20000e-0.01t
S(0)=430000 I(0)=20000 R(0)=0 a=0.01