: , , , . 310
: : ǻ
:
:
1) ;
2) .
3) .
4) .
5) .
:
. . , , , . , , . , , , , , . , : , , , , , , .
. , , . , : , , . . , , , , , -.
. , . , , , .
|
|
:
[1], , . - :
o The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) -
o The World Bank Institute (WBI) - ()
o United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) -
o International Monetary Fund (IMF) -
:
FDI (Inward and outward foreign direct investment flows). , , . : GDP, RES (Exchange reserves including gold), Opn (Degree of openness of the economy = (Exports + Imports)/GDP), ExDt (External debt), Dft (Budget deficit/surplus), Inflation (GDP deflator (annual %), r (Real interest rate, %)[2].
, , . , . , , . , . () , , , ( ), . , -, , , -, . [3], UNCTAD, , . , , , . , , .
:
:
FDI = β 0 +β 1 GDP +β 2 RES +β 3 Opn +β 4 ExDt +β 5 Dft +β 6 Inflation +β 7 r +ε
, 103 ( Real interest rate ), , . (152 ) :
FDI = β 0 +β 1 GDP +β 2 RES +β 3 Opn +β 4 ExDt +β 5 Dft +β 6 Inflation +ε
|
|
: GDP . , . , () , , , :
FDI = β 0 +β 1 RES +β 2 Opn +β 3 ExDt +β 4 Dft +ε
, , - . , , :
, , , - .
1% . RES, Opn, ExDt 1% , Dft 10% . . , .
:
, , . , , , , : , () , , . . , . , : .
, , . , . , , .
[1] 2011
[2] FDI, GDP, RES, Opn, ExDt, Dft are measured as US Dollars at current prices and current exchange rates in millions
[3] United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (1993), "Explaining and forecasting regional flows of FDI"