НБУ готовий протистояти хворобливим стихіям валютного ринку

Представник Нацбанку також не став відповідати на запитання щодо курсу гривні та її можливої девальвації щодо долара. Валерій Литвицький лише заявив, що НБУ не змінюватиме свою політику на валютному ринку, а якщо курс гривні треба буде підтримати під час спекулятивних атак, то Нацбанк, як і раніше, вийде на ринок із валютними інтервенціями. "Ротацій у нашій валютні політиці немає. Ми будемо віддавати перевагу економічним методам. Якщо ми побачимо, що на курс впливають сили стихії, ажіотажу, сформованого хворобливим попитом, ми будемо у певних обсягах у певний час виходити із інтервенціями. Арсенал економічних та адміністративних методів впливу з боку регулятора не вичерпано", - каже Валерій Литвицький. Водночас представник Нацбанку не став говорити, якими були валютні інтервенції Нацбанку у грудні, коли почала діяти низка адміністративних розпоряджень НБУ, покликаних стабілізувати ситуацію на валютному ринку. Пан Литвицький заявив лише, що вони були "на порядок меншими" за обсяги продажу валюти у у два попередні місяці. У листопаді 2012 року НБУ був змушений продати на міжбанківському валютному ринку 1,659 млрд доларів, а у жовтні - 1,797 млрд доларів. Бюджет 2013 року розрахований на основі курсу 8,4 гривень за долар та інфляції у 4,8%. Прогноз Міжнародного валютного фонду трохи вищий - 5,9%. Світовий банк має ще гірші очікування щодо інфляції в Україні - 9,5%.

Bank predicts stable prices and a stable exchange rate
Head of the National Bank advisers head Valery Lytvytsky said that deflation is a general fall in prices recorded the results of 2012, in no way connected with the slowing economy.
He predicts at least maintaining stable prices in early 2013, and "controlled smoothness" rate throughout the year. "Inflation has not always been the driver of economic growth," - said the representative of the National Bank, commenting Click widespread opinion among experts that not only the economic turmoil in Europe and unfavorable to Ukrainian exports external situation, but also attempts to NBU and the government to keep prices from growth and the devaluation of the hryvnia led to the fact that for the third quarter in 2012 Click Ukraine's GDP fell by 1.3%.
In support of his opinion Valery Lytvytsky cites two previous years - say, in 2011, inflation in Ukraine was twice lower than in 2010, and GDP growth - higher.
While experts predict Click at best zero growth of the Ukrainian economy up to 2012, Valery Lyvtytskyy says that "there is a high chance to finish the year in cumulative terms, without dashes." And in general, says the head of the advisory group head of the NBU, "not everything can be reduced to the GDP," and offers a look at the "dynamics of mortality or employment," the official data are improved.
Things could be worse Responding to the argument that most experts suggest Click respect of the restrictive monetary policy of the NBU has led to "hryvnia hunger" in the Ukrainian economy, which is reduced from a lack of working capital, a representative of the National Bank makes its argument: inflation may become a kind of income tax and, according to Mr. Litvitsky, "this tax will not save no GDP growth."
"If we try to reduce the price pressure, it is the economic slowdown that started in the second half of 2012, it could be already in recession grow. Is falling in industry, construction, but no drop in trade and services, and banking sector profits. A which formed the basis of gains in these areas like? stable price situation reasonably volatile situation with the exchange rate income people who grow up "- said Valery Lytvytsky. However, as acknowledged by the head of the advisory group chairman of the National Bank, "unless the investment base, then you can lose the positive dynamics of social economic efficiency." He also recognizes that the current investments in the Ukrainian economy shrinking. In 2013, as a representative of the Bank predicts, the situation is with the prices will not dramatically change, at least in the first quarter, when, according to Valery Litvitsky, acting inertia deflationary 2012. Head of advisers NBU chairman did not comment on how the dynamics of inflation may affect the increase of utility tariffs, which is one of the main conditions for resumption of lending to the IMF. However, it is this factor primarily indicate most economic commentators, giving their forecasts for inflation in 2013.
Bank is ready to confront "painful elements" of the currency market
The representative of the National Bank also did not respond to questions about the exchange rate and its possible devaluation of the dollar. Valery Lytvytsky only said that the NBU will not change its policy on the foreign exchange market, and if the exchange rate will need support during speculative attacks, the National Bank, as before, will hit the market with currency interventions. "Rotations in our monetary policy there. We will give priority to economic methods. If we see that the rate of impact force element, the excitement, the prevailing morbid demand, we will be in a certain volume at a certain time to go to the interventions. Arsenal economic and administrative methods to influence of the regulator is not exhausted, "- said Valery Lytvytsky. However, a representative of the National Bank did not say what were the National Bank currency intervention in December, when we started to operate a number of administrative orders NBU designed to stabilize the foreign exchange market. Mr. Lytvytsky said only that they were "much less" for sales in currencies in the previous two months. In November 2012, the National Bank was forced to sell the interbank 1.659 billion dollars, and in October - 1.797 billion dollars. Budget 2013 is calculated based on the rate of 8.4 per dollar and inflation at 4.8%. Forecast International Monetary Fund slightly higher - 5.9%. The World Bank is even worse expectations of inflation in Ukraine - 9.5%.