, , . , : . , . . ( ) . ( 2007 10 ), . : , , ( , , ..) .
, . .
, , . Bear Stearns 10 2008 .: - . , Bloomberg, 980 . [1].
. , , , 2423 . (17,39%), - 7249 ., 38,65%. , : , , 22,43% ( 1326 .). , , 5254 ., 53,40%. , 1649 . (27,06%), 31 2007 6287 ., 58,57%. , , . , , 923 . (24,34%), 3864 . (57,41%) (. . 1).
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2008 (6,18%) 29822 , ( 49,44%) [2]
: Reuters [3]/
( ) . S&P 10,6%, MSCI EM 20%, RTS 30%. , . - , S& 500 38% ( 1937 ), 2290,51 (31 2007 .) 654,14 (30 2008 .), .. 73,4% 1888,86 611, 32 67,6%. 134,96 . . 49 . . 63,7%[4]. 2008 . , .
. 2008 237,2 . ( : 2007 56,8 .). (. . 2).
:
, , , (. . 3).
: IMF, Bank of England[5].
. 3 2008 1%. . , , , , 4,4%, [6].
, . , 10 0.69% - ( ); 1999 - . , 1920- , - . [7] (. . 4).
:
. 2 3 2008 , [8]. -).2%, -0,9%. 2008 2007, 2,4%. Eurostat 15 , , .. 2.7% 7.5% 2007 , 1987 . (-1.2% 6.9% ), (-2.1% 3.8%) (-1.2% 5.3%).
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(. . 1).
. 1
% | ||||||
III 07 | IV 07 | I 08 | II 08 | III 08 | IV 08 | |
4.8 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 +/- 1.7 | 0.7 +/- 2.2 | |
1.0 | 2.4 | 3.2 | -2.4 | 2.4 +/- 2.8 | 1.4 +/- 2.8 | |
2.5 | 1.4 | 2.9 | -0.8 | 0.4 +/- 1.3 | 0.8 +/- 1.6 | |
2.4 | 1.4 | 5.2 | -2.0 | 0 +/- 2.1 | 0.1 +/- 2.3 | |
2.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -1.2 | 0.2 +/- 1.4 | 0.6 +/- 1.8 | |
0.6 | -1.7 | 2.0 | -1.1 | 0 +/- 1.7 | 0.6 +/- 2 | |
2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 +/-.2 | -0.4 +/- 1.2 | |
2.3 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 +/- 1.6 | 2 +/- 1.9 | |
G7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 +/- 1.8 | 0.7 +/- 2 |
: OECD Economic Outlook 83, OECD Calculations
( .. . .. 30 2008 .)
. , ( ; ) : 2008 . 340 000 , 2008 . 475 000, 516 000. 200 000 . [9].
. , 61 . 2008 , 1947 , , Bloomberg. 3,7 . 4,9 . , 2,8 , 1947 . , 2008 . , 2,8 , 1947 . , 2008 [10].
( : 2008 . ..)[11].
. , , .
, , : 150 . , 60 . . , , IV 2008 $47,5 .; 2009 $115,7 . 2009 163,2 . , . ( 2008 ) 51,7 %, 25,4 %.
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. 19 . , 97,6 , .. 1/6 [12]. . , 4 [13].
2008 .[14], , , .
, , . : , ..
: ?
: - , ( ) , . . , XIX - XX . ( ) , ( ). , , .
, .