, . (, . [31]) , . . , , , Գ. ' , ( , , , ), .
, ' .
, .
. , , .
, [24], ( : , Գ, IS-, , , ). [25] , , , .
90- . . ³, , , , , VECM 㳿 [30], 1999-2002 . , [28], VECM, ' . , ( 70%), . . [27]. ' .
|
|
, , . , , ˳ [40] . , ( 3) () 1999 2008 -, - 2002 2008 , . , . ˳ [39] : , - , . ѳ [32] VAR , .
. , . ˳ [40] ( ) , . , ˳ [39] , ( ) - . . -, , . , ' .
ѳ [32] .
˳ [40] 2002-2008 . , ѳ [32].
, ѳ [32].
3.1
, , . . ' . , 䳿 , . , , , , , - [23].
|
|
[36] . , , :
(1)
, , , .
, ( ):
(2)
, ,
(3)
г (2) ' , .
, , . , :
(4)
, . , ' (2).
, . , , . , . , . - .
. :
(5)
(6)
, , t - i - . , , :
(7)
.
:
(8)
. (8) . , , , , , , . , , , , .
Գ
Գ. Գ [41] , . , Գ . , / . , [35] , Գ . , Գ .
|
|
Գ, ' , , , . ' , :
(9)
∆pt - , L - , gapt - , st - .
3.2
2009 . (2009:1 = 100), . (2009:1 = 100) .
(2009:1 = 100), . ( 3) .
(), (2009:1 = 100).
, - , .
, , (2009:1 = 100).
, , , 12.
, , -. - 26].
3.1 , ( , , ).
3.1
cpi | ( 2009 = 100) | , |
ppi | ( 2009 = 100) | , . |
mb | . | |
m3 | 3. | |
( 2009 = 100). | ||
pf | ( 2009 = 100). | , , |
ind | ( 2009 = 100). | , . |
w | . | . |
GAP | , . | |
mGAP | , . |
|
|
1 , , .
- , ' , . г , , , ( 1).
ij- (ADF-) [33]. , , 1 ((1)) (. ADF- 2). , 2005 1.
'
[37].
' 3 , - . . , ' , '. , (, 2007 , 2009 ' 10 ).
[37] , .
- (p-values) 1 12. , .
( 4) , , .
. ' , .
( ) [38] ( ) [34].
ϳ (). .
.
3.3
, , ' . , ( ).
, , ( ).
3.2 .
3.2
.
227.8 | ||
(et+p*t) | 0.19 | 0.263631 |
ppit | 0.553 | 0.337914 |
pat | 0.184299 |
|
|
, 1% 0.55% . , : 1% (et+p*t) 0.2%. , .
3.3 . ( ).
3.3
0.18 (1.27) | 0.09 (0.68) | |
ECt-i | -0.07 (2.49) | -0.05 (1.76) |
∆cpit-1 | 0.18 (1.65) | 0.24 (2.11) |
∆ppit-4 | 0.15 (1.69) | 0.20 (2.26) |
∆wt-1 | 0.09 (2.26) | 0.10 (2.47) |
R2 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
R2 | 0.43 | 0.40 |
S.E.E. | 0.47 | 0.49 |
Jarque-Bera | 16.07 | 16.38 |
White-Heteroskedasticity | 8.70 | 8.37 |
Reset | 4.26 | 7.41 |
DW | 1.97 | 1.99 |
() -0.07, ' , . (-0.05) ' , ' . , .
, - , , 4 , , . .
' , ' , .
3.4 (7)
3.4
0.25 (2.28) | |
∆cpit-1 | 0.31 (2.62) |
∆cpit-4 | 0.26 (2.38) |
L_M3_GAP (-4) | 0.06 (1.66) |
R2 | 0.32 |
R2 | 0.28 |
S.E.E. | 0.53 |
Jarque-Bera | 19.94 |
White-Heteroskedasticity | 7.97 |
Reset | 14.94 |
DW | 1.96 |
, , 10% . 0.06 .. 4 .
Գ
, 10% . , 1 .. 0.04 .. 0.4, . .
, , , (1) .
3.6
AR (1)
AR(1) | |
0.33 (3.23) | |
∆cpit-1 | 0.44 (3.66) |
R2 | 0.19 |
R2 | 0.18 |
S.E.E. | 0.57 |
Jarque-Bera | 34.07 |
White-Heteroskedasticity | 0.58 |
Reset | 10.54 |
DW | 1.99 |
, AR(1) . , Գ.
, . , , , 99% .
2007.01-2009.12, .
, (RMSE) ().
3.7 . , AR(1) . .
3.7
. , , Գ AR(1)-. , AR(1) . , .
, , . , . , .