n S1, S2,..., Sn. Pij ( i = j Si) Si Sj. Pij
(2.1)
Pij = = P (Sj(k)/Si(k-1))
䳿 Sj(k) , .
, , (Pij¹0) . , .4.
, . , , , . | . 4. |
11=1-(12+13), 22 = 1 - (23 + 24) . . Si , , Pii=1.
||Pij|| ( ) , P1(k), P2(k),..., Pn(k) -
(k-) . .
Sm. Pi(0) = 0, Pm(0) = 1. Pi(1) = Pmi; i = 1,2,..., n.
=2; Pi(2) (i =1,2,...,n)
Sj (j=1,2,..., n)
Pi(2) = (i = 1, 2,..., n) .. ϳ k-
Pi(k) = (2.2)
г 1
P(k) = P(k-1) × P (2.3)
P(k), P(k-1) - - , - .
4. t1, t2, t3, t4.
( S):
S1 - ;
S2 - ;
S3 - ;
S4 - .
, S1, , .5.
г: 12 = 0,4; 13 = 0,2; 14 = 0,1 11 = 1 - (0,4+0,2+0,1) = 0,3 21 = 0; 23 = 0,4; 24 = 0,2; 22 = 1-0,4-0,2=0,4 31=32=0; 34=0,7; 33 = 1-0,7=0,3 41=42=43=0; 44=1 | . 5 |
1- i(1)= P1i (i = 1,2,3,4), 1- ( S1)
Pi(1) = (0,3; 0,4; 0,2; 0,1)
2-
{Pi(2)}={Pi(1)}. ||Pij|| =
ϳ
{Pi(3)}={Pi(2)} ×||Pij||
ϳ
{Pi(4)}={Pi(3)}. ||Pij|| =
, P(S1) = P1(4) = 0,008; P(S2) = P2(4) = 0,07; P(S3) = P3(4) = 0,129; P(S4) = P4(4) = 0,793.
- , Pij . k, Pij(k) = P(Si(k)/Sj(k-1). ||Pij(k)|| ,
|
|
{Pi(k)} = (k) = {Pj(k-1)} ||Pji(k)|| (2.4)
P(k) = P(k-1), P(k) (2.5)
5. , . ҳ 4, . .
||Pij(1)|| = ||Pij||
: () , 0 < Pij < 1, i, j = 1,..., n .