2.1. .
.
, 2012 . 34 , 2012 ( 1). http://www.fedstat.ru/indicators/start.do.
, . , profit forest industry - . :
1. -
,
2. ,
1
1.
, | Pollutants | . . | |
Fires | . . | ||
Forests area | . . | ||
Water pollution | . . | ||
Organizations with foreign capital | . . | ||
1 . | Cost of houses | 1 . . | |
Env protection | . | ||
Competition | . . . | ||
Number of employed | . . | ||
P | Rentability | -. . |
, , , .
2.2. .
(. 2).
|
|
2. [2]
profit_forest_industry | 79548,0 | 5298,00 | 12,0000 | 640564, |
organiz_w_forcap | 2,91176 | 0,000000 | 0,000000 | 45,0000 |
cost_of_houses | 110,829 | 80,4750 | 50,0900 | 325,710 |
pollutants | 19,9667 | 4,60600 | 0,0330000 | 142,854 |
env_protection | 2,94417e+006 | 1,48488e+006 | 12266,0 | 1,29294e+007 |
fires | 302,118 | 54,5000 | 2,00000 | 2244,00 |
forests_area | 19606,6 | 2241,40 | 0,000000 | 329177, |
water_pollution | 2,17647 | 0,000000 | 0,000000 | 30,0000 |
competition | 1252,28 | 20,4050 | 0,375694 | 41849,0 |
number_of_employed | 0,785294 | 0,400000 | 0,000000 | 3,50000 |
rentab | 2,76471 | 1,50000 | -19,2000 | 47,9000 |
. . | ||||
profit_forest_industry | 151249, | 1,90135 | 2,39370 | 5,20355 |
organiz_w_forcap | 8,37155 | 2,87508 | 4,07056 | 17,2524 |
cost_of_houses | 67,9077 | 0,612728 | 1,90380 | 2,61946 |
pollutants | 32,2963 | 1,61751 | 2,16232 | 4,59637 |
env_protection | 3,24033e+006 | 1,10059 | 1,54943 | 1,92317 |
fires | 550,854 | 1,82331 | 2,49313 | 5,61400 |
forests_area | 61711,6 | 3,14749 | 4,23050 | 17,6131 |
water_pollution | 5,72856 | 2,63204 | 3,86049 | 15,1945 |
competition | 7173,27 | 5,72816 | 5,57045 | 29,0300 |
number_of_employed | 0,846788 | 1,07831 | 1,48969 | 1,66564 |
rentab | 9,82800 | 3,55481 | 2,65437 | 11,7989 |
5% Perc. | 95% Perc. | IQ range | ||
profit_forest_industry | 198,000 | 522658, | 118983, | |
organiz_w_forcap | 0,000000 | 24,0000 | 1,25000 | |
cost_of_houses | 54,4850 | 289,012 | 53,0400 | |
pollutants | 0,0487500 | 101,873 | 22,6700 | |
env_protection | 104014, | 1,17734e+007 | 3,97725e+006 | |
fires | 2,75000 | 2133,00 | 335,250 | |
forests_area | 0,000000 | 202148, | 4611,73 | |
water_pollution | 0,000000 | 18,7500 | 2,00000 | |
competition | 1,07642 | 10503,6 | 22,1325 | |
number_of_employed | 0,000000 | 2,82500 | 0,900000 | |
rentab | -9,22500 | 21,3500 | 5,37500 |
v = 1,90135, , , . , , .
, profit forest industry, l_profit_forest_industry, (.3).
3. [3]
organiz_w_forcap | 2,91176 | 0,000000 | 0,000000 | 45,0000 |
cost_of_houses | 110,829 | 80,4750 | 50,0900 | 325,710 |
pollutants | 19,9667 | 4,60600 | 0,0330000 | 142,854 |
env_protection | 2,94417e+006 | 1,48488e+006 | 12266,0 | 1,29294e+007 |
fires | 302,118 | 54,5000 | 2,00000 | 2244,00 |
forests_area | 19606,6 | 2241,40 | 0,000000 | 329177, |
water_pollution | 2,17647 | 0,000000 | 0,000000 | 30,0000 |
competition | 1252,28 | 20,4050 | 0,375694 | 41849,0 |
number_of_employed | 0,785294 | 0,400000 | 0,000000 | 3,50000 |
rentab | 2,76471 | 1,50000 | -19,2000 | 47,9000 |
l_profit_forest_industry | 8,87450 | 8,57386 | 2,48491 | 13,3701 |
. . | ||||
organiz_w_forcap | 8,37155 | 2,87508 | 4,07056 | 17,2524 |
cost_of_houses | 67,9077 | 0,612728 | 1,90380 | 2,61946 |
pollutants | 32,2963 | 1,61751 | 2,16232 | 4,59637 |
env_protection | 3,24033e+006 | 1,10059 | 1,54943 | 1,92317 |
fires | 550,854 | 1,82331 | 2,49313 | 5,61400 |
forests_area | 61711,6 | 3,14749 | 4,23050 | 17,6131 |
water_pollution | 5,72856 | 2,63204 | 3,86049 | 15,1945 |
competition | 7173,27 | 5,72816 | 5,57045 | 29,0300 |
number_of_employed | 0,846788 | 1,07831 | 1,48969 | 1,66564 |
rentab | 9,82800 | 3,55481 | 2,65437 | 11,7989 |
l_profit_forest_industry | 2,70210 | 0,304479 | -0,0630883 | -0,722927 |
5% Perc. | 95% Perc. | IQ range | ||
organiz_w_forcap | 0,000000 | 24,0000 | 1,25000 | |
cost_of_houses | 54,4850 | 289,012 | 53,0400 | |
pollutants | 0,0487500 | 101,873 | 22,6700 | |
env_protection | 104014, | 1,17734e+007 | 3,97725e+006 | |
fires | 2,75000 | 2133,00 | 335,250 | |
forests_area | 0,000000 | 202148, | 4611,73 | |
water_pollution | 0,000000 | 18,7500 | 2,00000 | |
competition | 1,07642 | 10503,6 | 22,1325 | |
number_of_employed | 0,000000 | 2,82500 | 0,900000 | |
rentab | -9,22500 | 21,3500 | 5,37500 | |
l_profit_forest_industry | 4,79174 | 13,1589 | 4,77642 |
|
|
. v = 0,304479, , , . , - (.4).
4. l_profit_forest_industry
. | . | ||||
< 3,3920 | 2,4849 | 2,94% | 2,94% | * | |
3,3920 - 5,2062 | 4,2991 | 0% | 2,94% | ||
5,2062 - 7,0204 | 6,1133 | 20,59% | 23,53% | ******* | |
7,0204 - 8,8346 | 7,9275 | 29,41% | 52,94% | ********** | |
8,8346 - 10,649 | 9,7417 | 14,71% | 67,65% | ***** | |
10,649 - 12,463 | 11,556 | 23,53% | 91,18% | ******** | |
>= 12,463 | 13,37 | 8,82% | 100,00% | *** |
:
: ;
: .
0,286, = 0,8667. -: - Gretl. : 32, 0,05. -, 46,1943, (. 1.)
-(32)
= 0,05
= 0,95
= 46,1943
1. .
, - , , . , , (.2.).
2.
2.3.
( 2). . , . 1, . . : + , - - . , 0,8, .
|
|
(. 5)
r | |
0.1 - 0.3 | |
0.3 - 0.5 | |
0.5 - 0.7 | |
0.7 - 0.9 | |
0.9 - 1.0 |
5. .[4]
:
1. . 0,5267 . , .
2. , 1 . 0,4747; 0,4344; 0,4301. . , , . , , , , .
3. , , , P , . 0,2523; 0,1334; 0,2075; 0,2113. . , . , , , , . , .
4. , -0,07. , , . , , , .
5. , -0, 1986. , , , .
|
|
:
:
: ;
:
:
VIF(j) = ,
j .
:
VIF (organiz_w_forcap) 7,844
VIF (cost_of_houses) 2,045
VIF (pollutants) 3,232
VIF (env_protection) 1,789
VIF (fires) 3,704
VIF (forests_area) 7,714
VIF (water_pollution) 2,487
VIF (competition) 1,394
VIF (number_of_employe) 2,262
VIF (rentab) 1,250
:
1- = 6,4616493e+014
= 9,7690501e+061
= 4,4688177e-015
10, .
2.4.
, , , . .
, , .
(.6).
6.
. | t- | P- | |||
const | 5,83563 | 0,993326 | 5,8748 | <0,00001 | *** |
organiz_w_forcap | 0,0613952 | 0,109557 | 0,5604 | 0,58087 | |
cost_of_houses | 0,0214944 | 0,00696991 | 3,0839 | 0,00543 | *** |
pollutants | 0,00630509 | 0,0182804 | 0,3449 | 0,73344 | |
env_protection | 2,21856e-08 | 1,36188e-07 | 0,1629 | 0,87208 | |
fires | 0,000177394 | 0,0011463 | 0,1548 | 0,87843 | |
forests_area | -5,54219e-06 | 1,4733e-05 | -0,3762 | 0,71039 | |
water_pollution | -0,0706258 | 0,0901823 | -0,7831 | 0,44189 | |
competition | -0,00013445 | 5,38245e-05 | -2,4979 | 0,02046 | ** |
number_of_employed | 0,882477 | 0,58657 | 1,5045 | 0,14668 | |
rentab | 0,0380842 | 0,0372039 | 1,0237 | 0,31712 |
. | 9,068125 | . . . | 2,492992 | |||
. | 77,56170 | . | 1,877640 | |||
R- | 0,610008 | . R- | 0,432739 | |||
F(10, 22) | 3,441141 | - (F) | 0,007484 | |||
. | -60,92531 | . | 143,8506 | |||
. | 160,3122 | . - | 149,3894 | |||
10 2: . R2 61%.
[5]:
= 5,84+0,61 organiz_w_forcap + 0,22 cost_of_houses - 0,01 pollutants + 2,21856e-08 env_protection +0,0002 fires -5,54219e-06 forests_area -0,07 water_pollution -0,0001 competition + 0, 9 number_of_employed +0,04 rentab
:
: ;
: .
F- 3,44. , 0,07%. = 0,432739 . , . , . , , ( 3-7).
( 8), . , TR2 9,841706 46,1943, , .
organiz_w_forcap =0,21544 rentab (.7).
7.
|
|
. | t- | P- | |||
const | 5,96529 | 0,678693 | 8,7894 | <0,00001 | *** |
Cost_of_houses | 0,0196899 | 0,00504463 | 3,9031 | 0,00052 | *** |
competition | -0,000124613 | 4,785e-05 | -2,6043 | 0,01437 | ** |
number_of_employed | 1,29651 | 0,378194 | 3,4282 | 0,00184 | *** |
. | 9,068125 | . . . | 2,492992 | |
. | 92,41140 | . | 1,785105 | |
R- | 0,535341 | . R- | 0,487273 | |
F(3, 29) | 11,13714 | - (F) | 0,000049 | |
. | -63,81573 | . [6] | 135,6315 | |
. | 141,6175 | . - | 137,6456 |
:
=5, 97+0,02 cost_of_houses-0,0001 competition + 1,3number_of_employed
F- 11,12. , , 0,000049 .
, cost_of_houses, competition, number_of_employed . = 0,487273 [7].
2.5.
3-7.
, - , , profit_forest_industry : cost_of_houses, ompetition, number_of_employed. .
(p = 0,87843) Fires. , 2012 . -, , - , , , . , [8] .
Fires env_protection p =0,88175. , . , , , , . , , , , , , . .
forests_area p = 0,74676. - . , , , , , , .
pollutants p = 0, 70430. .
p = 0,44073 water_pollutions.
( p = 0,21544 = 0,17855) organiz_w_forcap rentab.
.
cost_of_houses p = 0,00052 , . . , [9] - . , , , . , . , , . , , 0,02%.
number_of_employed p =0,14668 p = 0,00437 . , . , , . , . 1,3%.
competition = 0,01437 . . , , , 1% [10] , 0,0001%.
34 , 2012 . .
.[11] . , , , , . (, , , .), . . , , . , , , . , .
, , . , . , , . , [12] : = 5,84+0,61 organiz_w_forcap + 0,22 cost_of_houses - 0,01 pollutants + 2,21856e-08 env_protection +0,0002 fires -5,54219e-06 forests_area -0,07 water_pollution -0,0001 competition + 0, 9 number_of_employed +0,04 rentab. , : =5, 97+0,02 cost_of_houses-0,0001 competition + 1,3number_of_employed, - .
, , , .
1. : ; . - .:,2008. -46 .
2. .. .- , 1968.
3. 3. , . . []: [. ] / . . . -: . , 2008. -448 .
3.4. . : . . 1 / - . . , . . , . . ; . . . . : , 1994. 310 .
3.5. .., .. . . - ., 2008.
6. http://whatwood.ru/vyruchka-lesnoj-otrasli-rossii-v-2012-g-vyrosla-na-65-do-7336-mlrd-rub/
6.7. http://www.fedstat.ru/indicators/start.do
[1] ?
[2]
[3]
[4] .
[5] .
[6] ?
[7] .
[8]-?
[9] ! !
[10] ?
[11] .
[12]