.


:




:

































 

 

 

 


2. , .




2.1. .

.

, 2012 . 34 , 2012 ( 1). http://www.fedstat.ru/indicators/start.do.

, . , profit forest industry - . :

1. -

,

2. ,

1

1.

  , Pollutants . .
  Fires . .
  Forests area . .
  Water pollution . .
  Organizations with foreign capital . .
  1 . Cost of houses 1 . .
  Env protection .
  Competition . . .
  Number of employed . .
  P Rentability -. .

 

, , , .

2.2. .

(. 2).

2. [2]

profit_forest_industry 79548,0 5298,00 12,0000 640564,
organiz_w_forcap 2,91176 0,000000 0,000000 45,0000
cost_of_houses 110,829 80,4750 50,0900 325,710
pollutants 19,9667 4,60600 0,0330000 142,854
env_protection 2,94417e+006 1,48488e+006 12266,0 1,29294e+007
fires 302,118 54,5000 2,00000 2244,00
forests_area 19606,6 2241,40 0,000000 329177,
water_pollution 2,17647 0,000000 0,000000 30,0000
competition 1252,28 20,4050 0,375694 41849,0
number_of_employed 0,785294 0,400000 0,000000 3,50000
rentab 2,76471 1,50000 -19,2000 47,9000
  . .
profit_forest_industry 151249, 1,90135 2,39370 5,20355
organiz_w_forcap 8,37155 2,87508 4,07056 17,2524
cost_of_houses 67,9077 0,612728 1,90380 2,61946
pollutants 32,2963 1,61751 2,16232 4,59637
env_protection 3,24033e+006 1,10059 1,54943 1,92317
fires 550,854 1,82331 2,49313 5,61400
forests_area 61711,6 3,14749 4,23050 17,6131
water_pollution 5,72856 2,63204 3,86049 15,1945
competition 7173,27 5,72816 5,57045 29,0300
number_of_employed 0,846788 1,07831 1,48969 1,66564
rentab 9,82800 3,55481 2,65437 11,7989
  5% Perc. 95% Perc. IQ range
profit_forest_industry 198,000 522658, 118983,  
organiz_w_forcap 0,000000 24,0000 1,25000  
cost_of_houses 54,4850 289,012 53,0400  
pollutants 0,0487500 101,873 22,6700  
env_protection 104014, 1,17734e+007 3,97725e+006  
fires 2,75000 2133,00 335,250  
forests_area 0,000000 202148, 4611,73  
water_pollution 0,000000 18,7500 2,00000  
competition 1,07642 10503,6 22,1325  
number_of_employed 0,000000 2,82500 0,900000  
rentab -9,22500 21,3500 5,37500  

 

v = 1,90135, , , . , , .

, profit forest industry, l_profit_forest_industry, (.3).

3. [3]

organiz_w_forcap 2,91176 0,000000 0,000000 45,0000
cost_of_houses 110,829 80,4750 50,0900 325,710
pollutants 19,9667 4,60600 0,0330000 142,854
env_protection 2,94417e+006 1,48488e+006 12266,0 1,29294e+007
fires 302,118 54,5000 2,00000 2244,00
forests_area 19606,6 2241,40 0,000000 329177,
water_pollution 2,17647 0,000000 0,000000 30,0000
competition 1252,28 20,4050 0,375694 41849,0
number_of_employed 0,785294 0,400000 0,000000 3,50000
rentab 2,76471 1,50000 -19,2000 47,9000
l_profit_forest_industry 8,87450 8,57386 2,48491 13,3701
  . .
organiz_w_forcap 8,37155 2,87508 4,07056 17,2524
cost_of_houses 67,9077 0,612728 1,90380 2,61946
pollutants 32,2963 1,61751 2,16232 4,59637
env_protection 3,24033e+006 1,10059 1,54943 1,92317
fires 550,854 1,82331 2,49313 5,61400
forests_area 61711,6 3,14749 4,23050 17,6131
water_pollution 5,72856 2,63204 3,86049 15,1945
competition 7173,27 5,72816 5,57045 29,0300
number_of_employed 0,846788 1,07831 1,48969 1,66564
rentab 9,82800 3,55481 2,65437 11,7989
l_profit_forest_industry 2,70210 0,304479 -0,0630883 -0,722927
  5% Perc. 95% Perc. IQ range
organiz_w_forcap 0,000000 24,0000 1,25000  
cost_of_houses 54,4850 289,012 53,0400  
pollutants 0,0487500 101,873 22,6700  
env_protection 104014, 1,17734e+007 3,97725e+006  
fires 2,75000 2133,00 335,250  
forests_area 0,000000 202148, 4611,73  
water_pollution 0,000000 18,7500 2,00000  
competition 1,07642 10503,6 22,1325  
number_of_employed 0,000000 2,82500 0,900000  
rentab -9,22500 21,3500 5,37500  
l_profit_forest_industry 4,79174 13,1589 4,77642  

 

. v = 0,304479, , , . , - (.4).

4. l_profit_forest_industry

. .  
< 3,3920 2,4849   2,94% 2,94% *
3,3920 - 5,2062 4,2991   0% 2,94%  
5,2062 - 7,0204 6,1133   20,59% 23,53% *******
7,0204 - 8,8346 7,9275   29,41% 52,94% **********
8,8346 - 10,649 9,7417   14,71% 67,65% *****
10,649 - 12,463 11,556   23,53% 91,18% ********
>= 12,463 13,37   8,82% 100,00% ***

 

:

: ;

: .

0,286, = 0,8667. -: - Gretl. : 32, 0,05. -, 46,1943, (. 1.)

-(32)

= 0,05

= 0,95

 

= 46,1943

1. .

, - , , . , , (.2.).

2.

 

2.3.

( 2). . , . 1, . . : + , - - . , 0,8, .

 

(. 5)

 

r  
0.1 - 0.3  
0.3 - 0.5  
0.5 - 0.7  
0.7 - 0.9    
0.9 - 1.0  

5. .[4]

 

   

:

1. . 0,5267 . , .

2. , 1 . 0,4747; 0,4344; 0,4301. . , , . , , , , .

3. , , , P , . 0,2523; 0,1334; 0,2075; 0,2113. . , . , , , , . , .

4. , -0,07. , , . , , , .

5. , -0, 1986. , , , .

:

:

: ;

:

 

:

VIF(j) = ,

j .

 

:

 

VIF (organiz_w_forcap) 7,844

VIF (cost_of_houses) 2,045

VIF (pollutants) 3,232

VIF (env_protection) 1,789

VIF (fires) 3,704

VIF (forests_area) 7,714

VIF (water_pollution) 2,487

VIF (competition) 1,394

VIF (number_of_employe) 2,262

VIF (rentab) 1,250

 

:

1- = 6,4616493e+014

= 9,7690501e+061

= 4,4688177e-015

 

10, .

 

2.4.

, , , . .

, , .

 

(.6).

 

6.

 

  . t- P-
const 5,83563 0,993326 5,8748 <0,00001 ***
organiz_w_forcap 0,0613952 0,109557 0,5604 0,58087  
cost_of_houses 0,0214944 0,00696991 3,0839 0,00543 ***
pollutants 0,00630509 0,0182804 0,3449 0,73344  
env_protection 2,21856e-08 1,36188e-07 0,1629 0,87208  
fires 0,000177394 0,0011463 0,1548 0,87843  
forests_area -5,54219e-06 1,4733e-05 -0,3762 0,71039  
water_pollution -0,0706258 0,0901823 -0,7831 0,44189  
competition -0,00013445 5,38245e-05 -2,4979 0,02046 **
number_of_employed 0,882477 0,58657 1,5045 0,14668  
rentab 0,0380842 0,0372039 1,0237 0,31712  

 

. 9,068125   . . . 2,492992
. 77,56170   . 1,877640
R- 0,610008   . R- 0,432739
F(10, 22) 3,441141   - (F) 0,007484
. -60,92531   . 143,8506
. 160,3122   . - 149,3894
       
             

10 2: . R2 61%.

[5]:

= 5,84+0,61 organiz_w_forcap + 0,22 cost_of_houses - 0,01 pollutants + 2,21856e-08 env_protection +0,0002 fires -5,54219e-06 forests_area -0,07 water_pollution -0,0001 competition + 0, 9 number_of_employed +0,04 rentab

:

: ;

: .

F- 3,44. , 0,07%. = 0,432739 . , . , . , , ( 3-7).

( 8), . , TR2 9,841706 46,1943, , .

organiz_w_forcap =0,21544 rentab (.7).

7.

. t- P-
const 5,96529 0,678693 8,7894 <0,00001 ***
Cost_of_houses 0,0196899 0,00504463 3,9031 0,00052 ***
competition -0,000124613 4,785e-05 -2,6043 0,01437 **
number_of_employed 1,29651 0,378194 3,4282 0,00184 ***

 

. 9,068125   . . . 2,492992
. 92,41140   . 1,785105
R- 0,535341   . R- 0,487273
F(3, 29) 11,13714   - (F) 0,000049
. -63,81573   . [6] 135,6315
. 141,6175   . - 137,6456

 

 

:

=5, 97+0,02 cost_of_houses-0,0001 competition + 1,3number_of_employed

F- 11,12. , , 0,000049 .

, cost_of_houses, competition, number_of_employed . = 0,487273 [7].

2.5.

3-7.

, - , , profit_forest_industry : cost_of_houses, ompetition, number_of_employed. .

(p = 0,87843) Fires. , 2012 . -, , - , , , . , [8] .

Fires env_protection p =0,88175. , . , , , , . , , , , , , . .

forests_area p = 0,74676. - . , , , , , , .

pollutants p = 0, 70430. .

p = 0,44073 water_pollutions.

( p = 0,21544 = 0,17855) organiz_w_forcap rentab.

.

cost_of_houses p = 0,00052 , . . , [9] - . , , , . , . , , . , , 0,02%.

number_of_employed p =0,14668 p = 0,00437 . , . , , . , . 1,3%.

competition = 0,01437 . . , , , 1% [10] , 0,0001%.

 

 

34 , 2012 . .

.[11] . , , , , . (, , , .), . . , , . , , , . , .

, , . , . , , . , [12] : = 5,84+0,61 organiz_w_forcap + 0,22 cost_of_houses - 0,01 pollutants + 2,21856e-08 env_protection +0,0002 fires -5,54219e-06 forests_area -0,07 water_pollution -0,0001 competition + 0, 9 number_of_employed +0,04 rentab. , : =5, 97+0,02 cost_of_houses-0,0001 competition + 1,3number_of_employed, - .

, , , .

 

1. : ; . - .:,2008. -46 .

2. .. .- , 1968.

3. 3. , . . []: [. ] / . . . -: . , 2008. -448 .

3.4. . : . . 1 / - . . , . . , . . ; . . . . : , 1994. 310 .

3.5. .., .. . . - ., 2008.

6. http://whatwood.ru/vyruchka-lesnoj-otrasli-rossii-v-2012-g-vyrosla-na-65-do-7336-mlrd-rub/

6.7. http://www.fedstat.ru/indicators/start.do


 

[1] ?

[2]

[3]

[4] .

[5] .

[6] ?

[7] .

[8]-?

[9] ! !

[10] ?

[11] .

[12]





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