, . - , . . .
:
Y = C + S. (5.1)
Q = C + I. (5.2)
Y = Q. (5.3)
(5.1) , . , . (5.2) : , . , , , (5.3) [1]. , Yt=Qt+rBt- 1, .. . . , (º 0 ). , : , ; , , , , , ( ).
(5.1)-(5.3), :
S = I. (5.4)
, , . , . , , . , ( , )[2].
-, . (5.4) , , . , , , . 5.1.
, . , :
. (5.5)
, , . , :
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. (5.6)
, , , , . . , , , ; , . , , , , . . . , - (.. ).
, . , , . . , , -[3]. , . , , , , -, -.
, . , :
. (5.7)
, (5.2) . , , , . , , .
, . (5.4) . [4]:
. (5.8)
(. 5.2):
, , . .
:
1. (, ). , : t .
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2. , , , . , , , : .
, . , . . , , .. . , , MPK . MPK , . , , . 5.3 ().
. , , ( , ), , , . , , , . , MPK. , . , , , . 5.3 ().
:
. , , , . , .. , (5.2). , . , , , . . . , , (perfect capital mobility, CM).
, , (5.1)-(5.3). , (Balance of Payment, B). (Current Account, CA) (Capital Account, CAP). , (Trade Balance) (Service Account). ( ), . , , , . , , .
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(5.2). , . , . , :
Q = C + I + NX = C + I + X M, (5.9)
NX = X M , . : . TB (TBºNX). TB, . , :
Q = C + I + TB. (5.10)
[5]. B*. , [6]. , B* , . , . r*. [7]
, , , NFP (net factor payments) :
NFP = r*B*. (5.11)
:
Y = Q + r*B*. (5.12)
, ( , , ), . , , .. NFP. , . , :
CA = TB + NFP = TB + r*B*, (5.13)
CA (current account) . (5.13), , , , , . , , [8].
, (5.10) (5.13), :
Y = Q + NFP = C + I + TB + r*B* = C + I + CA. (5.14)
:
. (5.15)
, .
, , . , .
, - : S = Y C. . (5.14), :
S I = CA, (5.16)
.. , , , . , , , . , .
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. (absorption):
A = C + I. (5.17)
Ad : A = Ad + M. , : Q = Ad + X. (5.14):
CA = Y A, (5.18)
.. . , , , .. , .
, , . , , , .
, (small open economy). , . . , ( ). , , . , (.. ). , ( ) , . ( , ), . .
, , , . , . , - , . , , . , . , , :
. (5.19)
5.4.
, : , , , . , , . , [9]. , , . , , (deterioration) . , , . , CA.
, . , , .
:
CA + CA* = 0, (5.20)
CA ,
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CA* .
(5.20) , , , . (5.16), (5.20):
S I = (S* I*), (5.21)
S* I* .
, , (5.21) (. . 5.5).
. . , .
. (capital controls). .
- : , . , . , , . . .
? . : , . , , , . , , .
, , :
/ | |||
S | r, CA=0 | r=r*, | r, |
I | r, CA=0 | r=r*, | r, CA |
CA* ( r*) | r, CA=0 | r, | r, |
, , . , ( ). , . .
. () () . (Terms of Trade, TOT), :
, (5.22)
PX PM .
. , . , .
, B 0 *=B 2 *= 0 d= 1. (5.15) :
B 1 * = Q 1 C 1 I 1 = CA 1. (5.23)
B 1 * = Q 2 + r*B 1 * C 2 = CA 2. (5.24)
(5.23)-(5.24), :
(5.25)
(5.26)
(5.27)
, , , .
:
. , (5.25)-(5.27) :
CA 1 + CA 2 + + CAT = 0, (5.28)
(5.29)
. (5.30)
, , , , T : .
B 0 *, (5.29) :
(5.31)
D* . :
D* = B*. (5.32)
(5.32), (5.31) :
. (5.33)
, .
, , T¥. (5.28)-(5.30) - , , , [10]:
. (5.34)
, . , r*Dt- 1 * . (5.34) , . . (.. ) .
[1] , Y , Q . , , .
[2] : , , ( ).
[3] , , , , . (, ).
[4] , , , .
[5] (the Rest of the World, ROW) , . , .
[6] , : , ( ), . .
[7] , .
[8] : , , (Current Account Surplus). (Current Account Deficit).
[9] ( . improvement) .
[10] No Ponzi Game Condition. , 1920- .