:
.
AR(1).
Ŷt = a+bYt- 1 Yt = a+bYt- 1 +εt,
b = ,
a = - b ,
, . 4, = 2,8398, b = 0,7504
Ŷ = 2,8398 + 0,7504 Yt- 1.
:
= = 0,7514.
= 0,751 ,
F. = = ×19 = 27,227,
F. (α = 0,05; 1 = 1; 2 = 19) = 4,38 (. . 2).
F. > F., . - d
d = = 1,4862, dH = 1,22, dB = 1,42,
dB < d < 4- dB ,
1,42 < d < 2,58,
, .
, F., d Yt = 2,8398 + 0,7504 Yt- 1 + , ,
Ŷ = Ŷ 23 = 2,8398 + 0,7504 Y 22 = 2,8398 + 0,7504×12,13 = 11,9422
t = 11,9422.
3
(Yt) .
5
(t) | ||||||||||
Yt | 2,1 | 1,7 | 2,9 | 3,1 | 3,2 | 3,6 | 3,5 | 3,6 | 3,4 | 3,7 |
: , . 6, 2008 . 2008 .
6
t | Yt | Yt | Yt+ 1 | YtYt+ 1 | t² | ||
2,1000 | 2,1000 | 1,7000 | 3,5700 | 4,4100 | 2,8900 | 1,0000 | |
1,7000 | 1,7000 | 2,9000 | 4,9300 | 2,8900 | 8,4100 | 4,0000 | |
2,9000 | 2,9000 | 3,1000 | 8,9900 | 8,4100 | 9,6100 | 9,0000 | |
3,1000 | 3,1000 | 3,2000 | 9,9200 | 9,6100 | 10,2400 | 16,0000 | |
3,2000 | 3,2000 | 3,6000 | 11,5200 | 10,2400 | 12,9600 | 25,0000 | |
3,6000 | 3,6000 | 3,5000 | 12,6000 | 12,9600 | 12,2500 | 36,0000 | |
3,5000 | 3,5000 | 3,6000 | 12,6000 | 12,2500 | 12,9600 | 49,0000 | |
3,6000 | 3,6000 | 3,4000 | 12,2400 | 12,9600 | 11,5600 | 64,0000 | |
3,4000 | 3,4000 | 3,7000 | 12,5800 | 11,5600 | 13,6900 | 81,0000 | |
3,7000 | 100,0000 | ||||||
å | 27,1000 | 28,7000 | 88,9500 | 85,2900 | 94,5700 | 385,0000 | |
å /n | 38,5000 |
.6
t | Yt | Yt | Yt+ 2 | YtYt+ 2 | ||
2,1000 | 2,1000 | 2,9000 | 6,0900 | 4,4100 | 8,4100 | |
1,7000 | 1,7000 | 3,1000 | 5,2700 | 2,8900 | 9,6100 | |
2,9000 | 2,9000 | 3,2000 | 9,2800 | 8,4100 | 10,2400 | |
3,1000 | 3,1000 | 3,6000 | 11,1600 | 9,6100 | 12,9600 | |
3,2000 | 3,2000 | 3,5000 | 11,2000 | 10,2400 | 12,2500 | |
3,6000 | 3,6000 | 3,6000 | 12,9600 | 12,9600 | 12,9600 | |
3,5000 | 3,5000 | 3,4000 | 11,9000 | 12,2500 | 11,5600 | |
3,6000 | 3,6000 | 3,7000 | 13,3200 | 12,9600 | 13,6900 | |
3,4000 | ||||||
3,7000 | ||||||
å | 23,7000 | 27,0000 | 81,1800 | 73,7300 | 91,6800 | |
å /n |
. 6
|
|
t | Yt | Yt | Yt+ 3 | YtYt+ 3 | ||
2,1000 | 2,1000 | 3,1000 | 6,5100 | 4,4100 | 9,6100 | |
1,7000 | 1,7000 | 3,2000 | 5,4400 | 2,8900 | 10,2400 | |
2,9000 | 2,9000 | 3,6000 | 10,4400 | 8,4100 | 12,9600 | |
3,1000 | 3,1000 | 3,5000 | 10,8500 | 9,6100 | 12,2500 | |
3,2000 | 3,2000 | 3,6000 | 11,5200 | 10,2400 | 12,9600 | |
3,6000 | 3,6000 | 3,4000 | 12,2400 | 12,9600 | 11,5600 | |
3,5000 | 3,5000 | 3,7000 | 12,9500 | 12,2500 | 13,6900 | |
3,6000 | ||||||
3,4000 | ||||||
3,7000 | ||||||
å | 20,1000 | 24,1000 | 69,9500 | 60,7700 | 83,2700 | |
å /n |
7
− | − | |
0,8000 | 0,4500 | |
0,1250 | 0,1250 | |
-0,0500 | 0,0750 | |
-0,1250 | 0,1750 | |
å | 0,7500 | 0,8250 |
å /n | 0,1875 | 0,2063 |
..= (0,1875+0,2063)/2 | 0,1969 | |
..= | -0,0094 | 0,0094 |
8
t | . | St | Y - St = Tt | tTt | ||||
− | − | − | -0,0094 | 2,1094 | 2,1094 | 4,4496 | ||
1,9000 | − | − | 0,0094 | 1,6906 | 3,3812 | 2,8581 | ||
2,3000 | 2,1000 | 0,8000 | -0,0094 | 2,9094 | 8,7282 | 8,4646 | ||
3,0000 | 2,6500 | 0,4500 | 0,0094 | 3,0906 | 12,3624 | 9,5518 | ||
3,1500 | 3,0750 | 0,1250 | -0,0094 | 3,2094 | 16,0470 | 10,3002 | ||
3,4000 | 3,2750 | 0,1250 | 0,0094 | 3,5906 | 21,5436 | 12,8924 | ||
3,5500 | 3,4750 | -0,0500 | -0,0094 | 3,5094 | 24,5658 | 12,3159 | ||
3,5500 | 3,5500 | 0,0750 | 0,0094 | 3,5906 | 28,7248 | 12,8924 | ||
3,5000 | 3,5250 | -0,1250 | -0,0094 | 3,4094 | 30,6846 | 11,6240 | ||
3,5500 | 3,5250 | 0,1750 | 0,0094 | 3,6906 | 36,9060 | 13,6205 | ||
å | 30,8000 | 185,0530 | 98,9696 | |||||
å /n | 5,5 | 3,0800 | 18,5053 | 9,8970 |
.8
t | ε | ( - )2 | ||||
2,2262 | 0,1168 | − | − | − | 0,0136 | |
2,4159 | 0,7253 | -0,7253 | -0,1168 | 0,3703 | 0,5261 | |
2,6056 | -0,3038 | 0,3038 | -0,7253 | 1,0590 | 0,0923 | |
2,7953 | -0,2953 | 0,2953 | 0,3038 | 0,0001 | 0,0872 | |
2,9850 | -0,2244 | 0,2244 | 0,2953 | 0,0050 | 0,0504 | |
3,1747 | -0,4159 | 0,4159 | 0,2244 | 0,0367 | 0,1730 | |
3,3644 | -0,1450 | 0,1450 | 0,4159 | 0,0734 | 0,0210 | |
3,5541 | -0,0365 | 0,0365 | 0,1450 | 0,0118 | 0,0013 | |
3,7438 | 0,3344 | -0,3344 | 0,0365 | 0,1376 | 0,1118 | |
3,9335 | 0,2429 | -0,2429 | -0,3344 | 0,0084 | 0,0590 | |
å | 30,7985 | -0,0015 | 1,7022 | 1,1357 | ||
å /n | 3,0800 | -0,0002 |
:
(1)
Yt = Tt + St + Et, t = 1,2, n
r (1), r (2), r (3), , . 6 (3).
|
|
r1 = 0,756, r2 = 0,853, r3 = 0,786
, () ( = 2) .
1. 2- , .. , ,
= = 1,9; = = 2,3; = = 3.
. ., , .
2. , ,
. = = = 2,1; . = = 2,65 . . (. 6).
3. . t ( . 6).
4. St, . 7.
5. Tt . 8.
Tt = +bt+ε
= 2,0365; b = 0,1897
Tt = 2,0365 + 0,1897 t + ε
= 2,0365 + 0,1897 t.
, . 8
r = 0,851
F. = 20,920
F. (α = 0,05, 1 = 1; 2 = 8) = 5,32
F. > F.
d = 1,499
dH (n = 10, p = 1) = 0,88; dB (n = 10, p = 1) = 1,32
dB < d < 4- dB.
. 2008 .
(t = 11) = 2,0365 + 0,1897×11 = 4,1232
St (t = 11) = -0,0094
Ŷt . = 4,1232-0,0094 = 4,1138
4,1138 .
(t = 12) = 2,0365 + 0,1897×12 = 4,3129
St (t = 12) = 0,0094
Ŷt . = 4,3129 + 0,0094 = 4,3223
2008 : 4,1138 + 4,3223 = 8,4361
4
(Yt) , t.
9
t | ||||||||||
Yt | 2,7 | 2,6 | 2,9 | 3,1 | 3,2 | 3,6 | 3,5 | 3,4 | 3,0 | 3,4 |
: , . 10, , , .
10
t | Yt | Yt | Yt+ 1 | YtYt+ 1 | t² | t | ||
2,700 | 2,700 | 2,600 | 7,020 | 7,290 | 6,760 | |||
2,600 | 2,600 | 2,900 | 7,540 | 6,760 | 8,410 | |||
2,900 | 2,900 | 3,100 | 8,990 | 8,410 | 9,610 | |||
3,100 | 3,100 | 3,200 | 9,920 | 9,610 | 10,240 | |||
3,200 | 3,200 | 3,600 | 11,520 | 10,240 | 12,960 | |||
3,600 | 3,600 | 3,500 | 12,600 | 12,960 | 12,250 | |||
3,500 | 3,500 | 3,400 | 11,900 | 12,250 | 11,560 | |||
3,400 | 3,400 | 3,000 | 10,200 | 11,560 | 9,000 | |||
3,000 | 3,000 | 3,400 | 10,200 | 9,000 | 11,560 | |||
3,400 | −− | −− | −− | −− | −− | |||
å | 31,400 | 28,000 | 28,700 | 89,890 | 88,080 | 92,350 | ||
å /n | 38,500 | 5,500 |
. 10
t | Yt | Yt | Yt+ 2 | YtYt+ 2 | z= | |||
2,700 | 2,700 | 2,900 | 7,830 | 7,290 | 8,410 | 7,290 | 1,000 | |
2,600 | 2,600 | 3,100 | 8,060 | 6,760 | 9,610 | 6,760 | 1,414 | |
2,900 | 2,900 | 3,200 | 9,280 | 8,410 | 10,240 | 8,410 | 1,732 | |
3,100 | 3,100 | 3,600 | 11,160 | 9,610 | 12,960 | 9,610 | 2,000 | |
3,200 | 3,200 | 3,500 | 11,200 | 10,240 | 12,250 | 10,240 | 2,236 | |
3,600 | 3,600 | 3,400 | 12,240 | 12,960 | 11,560 | 12,960 | 2,449 | |
3,500 | 3,500 | 3,000 | 10,500 | 12,250 | 9,000 | 12,250 | 2,646 | |
3,400 | 3,400 | 3,400 | 11,560 | 11,560 | 11,560 | 11,560 | 2,828 | |
3,000 | −− | −− | −− | −− | −− | 9,000 | 3,000 | |
3,400 | −− | −− | −− | −− | −− | 11,560 | 3,162 | |
å | 31,400 | 25,000 | 26,100 | 81,830 | 79,080 | 85,590 | 99,640 | 22,467 |
å /n | 3,140 | 9,964 | 2,247 |
|
|
. 10
t | Yt | tYt | Ŷ | ε | εt | εt-1 | ε ² | (εt-εt-1) ² |
2,700 | 2,700 | 2,780 | -0,080 | − | − | 0,006 | − | |
2,600 | 5,200 | 2,860 | -0,260 | -0,260 | -0,080 | 0,068 | 0,032 | |
2,900 | 8,700 | 2,940 | -0,040 | -0,040 | -0,260 | 0,002 | 0,048 | |
3,100 | 12,400 | 3,020 | 0,080 | 0,080 | -0,040 | 0,006 | 0,014 | |
3,200 | 16,000 | 3,100 | 0,100 | 0,100 | 0,080 | 0,010 | 0,000 | |
3,600 | 21,600 | 3,180 | 0,420 | 0,420 | 0,100 | 0,176 | 0,102 | |
3,500 | 24,500 | 3,260 | 0,240 | 0,240 | 0,420 | 0,058 | 0,032 | |
3,400 | 27,200 | 3,340 | 0,060 | 0,060 | 0,240 | 0,004 | 0,032 | |
3,000 | 27,000 | 3,420 | -0,420 | -0,420 | 0,060 | 0,176 | 0,230 | |
3,400 | 34,000 | 3,500 | -0,100 | -0,100 | -0,420 | 0,010 | 0,102 | |
å | 179,300 | 0,000 | 0,516 | 0,596 | ||||
å /n | 17,930 |