1. .
2. Bell D., 1983, p. 1160.
3.
, Roger Lowenstein, Intrinsic Value, The Wall Srteet Jour
nal, June 1, 1995, p. Cl.
4. Keynes, 1936, p. 158.
5. .
6. : [Thaler, 1991, p. xi-xii].
7. Ibid., p. xii.
8. Statman, 1982, p. 451.
9. Thaler, Shefrin, 1981.
10. Shefrin, Statman, 1984.
11. Miller M., 1987, p. 15.
12. Bernstein, 1986, p. 805.
13. Lakonishok, Shleifer, Vishny, 1993.
14. Kahneman, Knetsch, Thaler, 1990, p. 170-177.
15. French, Poterba, 1989.
16. Keynes, 1936, p. 155-156.
17. Bernstein, 1992, p. 34.
18. Ibid., p. 143.
19. .: [Shiller, 1989].
20. Vertin, 1974, p. 10.
18
1. : Unemployment and Mr. Keynes's Revolution in Economic Thought //
Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 1977, vol. 3, p. 113.
2. .: [Garber, 1989].
3. .: [Smithson, Smith, 1995, p. 26-28 ( ); Ball,
1991, p. 74-79, appendix E].
4. .: [Bernstein, 1992, ch. 11].
5. .: [Bernstein, 1992,
ch. 14].
6. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency // The New York Times, 1995, June 15.
7. Global Market for Derivatives // The Wall Street Journal, 1995, December 19, p. 1.
8. : [Loomis, 1995].
9. , :
[Loomis, 1995].
10. : Grant's Interest Rate Observer // Financial Times, 1995, March 17.
11. Garn Institute of Finance, University of Utah, November 30, 1994.
19
1. Kendall, 1972, p. 42.
2. : [Adams, 1995, p. 17].
3. Chesterton, 1909, p. 149-150.
4. Chorafas, 1994, p. 15.
5. Ibid., p. 16.
6. . : [Hsieh, 1995; Focardi, 1996].
7. .: [Focardi, 1996, Leinweber,
Arnott, 1995]. Journal of
Investing 1995 .
8. .: Can the Complexity Gurus Explain It All // Business Week, 1995, November 6,
p. 22-24.; .
9. Kruskal, Stigler, 1994, p. 7.
10. Keynes, 1921, p. 323.
-
95
317-319 . . 163-169, 192, 196-197, 263-
264, 332-333
193-194, 239-240 46 49-51, 54, 60-61, 73-74, 79, 82, 154 51, 353 42
46 148-149 22 98 239 139-142, 153 139-142, 238 47-48, 50-51, 60-61, 80 23, 32, 59, 141,
|
|
|
244, 306 .
38, 57
197 47, 102-103, 118-119, 157-
158, 177 172, 174
. . ;
49
348
. .
53, 347-348
127
. .
. .
84, 145
289-323
- 335-336
87-88, 92, 147, 152, 330
106-107, 124-126, 128, 130-
131, 257-258, 265, 283, 294-296
. .
147, 152,
216, 357
. . 33
- 242, 264, 270
210 - .
. 39, 43, 60, 297-298, 310-312
()
200-203
32-33 , 193,
202-203, 212, 221, 234, 269, 321 24-25 33-35, 49, 66-67,
76-86, 135, 209-210 68, 71
61, 79, 81
89
32, 71
351
69-70
148
71
68 125, 242-245 354-355 75 132,
227-229, 279, 281-282 , 111-113, 221-223,
243, 334
209-212, 233, 240 268 341 33, 73, 280. . 264
301
91-92, 177-178
23, 91-92, 177-178. . 23, 91-96,101,159-163, 177-178, 220-221, 228-229, 334-335, 350
88, 96, 151-153
, 37-38, 42, 46-47, 49-51, 53, 65, 73-74, 79-80
345 211 353 . . 48-49, 61, 79-80, 82 225-228
. . 35-36. .
212 258-281 326 202-203
272
315
21, 25, 111, 224, 270
271-272
322
322
273 203-204, 310-311 271
275
.278
198-199
197-198
277 , / 32-
33, 62
181
133-134, 141-142, 256-257 - 91, 193, 196, 321,
339 , 203-204, 353,
30-31, 47-48 30-31, 33-35, 44, 47, 49, 62-63, 110
118-119, 175-176, 183-184,
186-187
. . 29. .
35-36, 49 74
61, 65, 79, 82-83, 85-87,
114, 137-138, 169, 233, 289, 330
23, 118, 140-141, 189,
222, 244
23, 32, 141, 306 128, 208 160
|
|
|
305-307, 310, 313-314, 317-318, 323 30-31 44-46
249-251, 253-255, 258-264,
29-33, 57-74, 131, 190, 221, 257
30-31
151, 206
32
31
26, 30-31, 62-63, 69-71, 73, 219, 350
30-31, 33, 69-71
31, 132, 137
71, 87-89, 121, 140-141, 225, 303
31, 250
26, 219, 353
31, 71
70-71
252, 256
250 26, 30-32, 62, 122, 132,
137, 239
172
158-159
215-222
271, 274-275
206-212
264-265
347
178, 209-210
36, 38
191-205
171-190
289-303
, 192-193, 195, 199, 276, 304, 306-308, 315, 318, 322 266 317 165-168, 192-193, 202-203
198-199, 280-281, 307 269-270, 275 - . .
202 ,
322-323
204, 238, 258, 270, 282 135, 137-140, 298 187 234, 241, 264, 284-285, 301-302, 310, 316-317, 351 49
92 295
13, 30, 113, 137 59, 77, 336
240, 247-248
219
39-40 . .
. . ;
35
61, 68-71, 139
22-24
24-25
35-36
151-153 181 184-186, 206 53, 58, 60 277, 309-312, 342, 347 . .
33
-. . . . 69-71, 73, 121-122, 161-162,
279, 319 262-263, 318
323, 356
199-200
238
223-224, 325-326, 341-342, 344
120
327-330
327-330
109
174
93, 101-103, 145, 209
106
/ 32-33, 62
189, 229, 231, 272, 274, 277. .
. .
(P.Q.) 319-320
32, 266-267, 269-270. 320, 330
. .
31, 36-37, 42
141-143, 145-146
230-232
263, 320
268-269, 275
176 . .
38
250
138, 315, 331-332 30, 49, 58, 60, 251. .
37-38, 49, 51-53 34-35, 48-50 37
41-46, 62, 72-73 73, 75-90 . .
298-300 315-316 315-
316, 322, 340-341
264
176 . .
250
230-232 4, 38, 120
- 335-336
318-319
313-314
278
270 308 85-86 22, 108-110
237
294-295
304-306
|
|
|
124-125 31, 63
53 144 92, 94-101.
. 174-175, 182-186 310 313
107, 125, 149, 328-329 353 352 33 238-239, 354 152
147-148, 152-153
245-247
274-275
141-143
357
223
300-301
33
328
208
82-83, 145
/ 225-226
334
151
237
30
223 () 200, 314, 318, 323, 356
356
. .
. .
. .
181-182
145-146
- 179-180 162-168, 342, 346 160 352
261
- 176, 327
315
338-339 314-315, 318, 323 203, 240, 279-280, 282, 320-
321, 328-330, 334-335 , 139-
148 149-150 136 175 130-131, 272, 274-
276, 282-283, 316-318 120-122, 125, 130-132 120-122, 130-
132, 200, 252, 257 275, 282 192, 321 324-325, 327-335
- 327-332
- 327-330, 332, 337, 339
327, 329-330 . . 76
68 . .
. .
82-85, 89, 138, 145,
206, 219, 291, 342, 345 - 86 177, 210 290-295, 301-302,
307, 312-314, 323, 343-345 192-193, 199-200, 233-235
124-125, 195
. .
281
22, 149 . . 89
123-125, 128-131, 256-257, 265, 294-296
256-257
121
121-124
263
284
121, 283
208
207
89, 128-131. 207, 256
208-211 268
194
. .
315
339
315
194
- 193-194
337-341
267, 269-272, 275-279. .
274-276 221-222, 297, 310-311 82 34, 67 134-153,
206, 225, 228
118-120, 136-137 ( ) 243-245 139-140 206, 256-261, 310-311 22, 61, 102 310 226
292-293
36
249
294-295
87-88
33
235, 245-247
311-312
217, 220-221, 298-299
238
24-25
|
|
|
. .
128-129, 207
264
22-23
252, 291-292
191-192
128
25-26
35 87-90, 128-
129, 207
349-351 - 215-224,
230-232
25
39-40, 89-90, 113-114
113-114
352-353
36, 219, 221
201
191
137
22, 102-106, 218, 307, 324-329, 334-335, 343-348
99-101
325
342
346-347
324-325
328-329, 354-355 110 262 202, 210 129, 152, 208, 350 . . 43 197, 238, 241, 246, 258,
282, 323, 332-333, 340-341, 354 211 290 -. .
, 254 21, 61 85-86 262 313. .
308-309, 312-313 . .
128-130, 133
130-132
283-284
258
258, 291, 304, 307-308
206
316-317 21, 36, 38, 57-74 22, 75,104-105. . 38-39, 144 42, 49, 53, 110 46
281-283
158-159
. . ; ,
22-23
. . -
198, 256-257, 264-265, 271-272, 283, 293-296
278-279
207
279-281
347
217-218
39-40, 106
130
281
111, 325-326
169-170
221-222 131, 292-293
281-283
140
322
225-226
232
146-147, 163
53
- 86
322
338-342
196-198
20-21
129
215
323 . . 94
282
318-320
164-165, 197-199, 227-228, 240, 271-274, 279-281, 324-327, 332-334, 340-343, 347-348
291, 302, 309-311 311 149
53
222
110
93. . 327-329 50-51, 65 . . . . 216
226-230
218-223
215, 222-223 . .
197-198
164-165, 167-168
146 164-165,
167-168, 218 310 224 68-69, 82-84 20 261-263 326, 343, 347 217-218, 222 44-46 57, 111 . .
. . , 161-163 ()
178-181,190
329 146. .
EAFE 272-273
23
271
273-274
162
88, 95-96, 211. . , 149 231 308-309 204
334
224
222
106-110, 244
109
109
163
109
105
|
|
|
109-110
109
337-340
111-113, 221-223, 243-244, 334-335
33
110 111 108, 111-113 24-25, 123-124 108 186-187, 191
190
24, 303
188-190
204-205
202-203
195-196
283
205
199
195 192
342
290-291, 314 38, 48
- 42-43, 47-49
- 21, 37-38, 42, 47-53, 72
35-36
23, 151-153
48, 80
. 80-81, 156
161-162
192 337 224, 322-323, 340-341 39-40, 106, 250, 341 . . . . . .
67-68, 243-245, 277, 291-292, 347. .
, 179 256257 198 209
236
197
220, 336
220, 267, 269,331,335
176
ø 251
290
31
315
251
211, 241-242
236-237
211
127
199, 251, 253-254, 258, 261
308
- 46, 309
220-221, 261, 290, 299-300
164, 234, 236, 240, 267-268,
271, 276, 312, 315-316, 331 127
50, 54
65 342 107
261-262 258-261,
310, 345, 347-348
. . 111, 325-326 43-46 43-45. .
. . 341
258, 260-261 109 32, 46, 193, 202-203,
212, 217, 266-267, 269-270, 320, 330 93 325
S & 500 338-339
325-327
305-306, 309
24-25, 219-221, 352-354 : , 163 28, 341, 343, 346, 355 328
199-204 201-202,
211-212
-- 326
. .
330
209
342-343 273-274, 282, 321-322
313-316, 324-327, 330-333, 347
251 . .
, 68-71, 160, 238. .
,
171-190
109-110 . . 327, 335 335-336, 339
,
171-190
109-110 . . 327, 335 335-336,
. .
80
41-54
50, 65
80
80
80-81, 156-157
44-46
197, 283 96-97
, 68-71, 160, 238. .
. . ; . .
() 89-90, 92-93, 127-128, 211-212, 233-234, 238, 245-249, 253-254, 303, 335
, 238-239
231
67
111 77
,
() / Thecrie analytique des probabilites (Laplace) 156
() 80
() / Disquisitiones Arithmeticae (Gauss) 156
() / De Divine Proportione (Paccioli) 60
() / Ars Magna (Cardano) 65, 72
, () / Natural and Political Observations made upon the Bills of Mortality (Graunt) 92, 95-102
() / Observations on Reversionary Payments (Price) 149
, () / Zoonomia, or the Theory of Generations (Galton) 174
() / Specimen Theoriae Novae de Mensura Sortis (Bernoulli) 117
() / Ars Conjectandi (Bernulli) 118-119, 124
, , , , . . () / Researches on population, births, deaths, prisons, and poor houses, etc. in the Kingdom of the Low Countries (Quetelet) 177
() / De Vita Propria Liber (Cardano) 63-64
(-) / Hisftb al-jabr w'almuqabalah (al-Khowarizmi) 51
() / Liber Quadratorum (Fibonacci) 43
() / Liber de Ludo Aleae (Cardano) 66-69, 71-73
() / Liber Abaci 41-43, 60
, () / Summa de arithmetic, geo-metria et proportionalita (Paccioli) 60-61
/ Domesday Book 95
, (, , ) 313
() / A Treatise on Probability (Keynes) 125, 242-246, 277
, ( -) /La logique, ou Part de penser (Port-Royal) 70, 75, 88, 100, 117-118, 120, 123, 134, 225
() / The Loves of Plants (Galton) 174
() / The World of Mathematics (Newman) 119
() / Pensees (Pascal) 87
() / Hereditary Genius (Galton) 119, 182-184
() / Elements (Euclid) 48
() / Principle (Newton) 102
() / Mecanique celeste (Laplace) 177
He ? (, ) 312-314
() / The Wealth of Nations (Smith) 149
() / Of the Nature and Use of Lots (Gataker) 74
() / Essay towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances (Bayes) 148
() / De Subtilitate Rerum (Cardano) 64
() / Sopra de Scoperte ! Dadi (Galileo) 73, 76
