5%- , :
, .. | , . | |||||||||
5000 | ||||||||||
5 000 15 000 | ||||||||||
15 000 30 000 | ||||||||||
30 000 50 000 | ||||||||||
50 000 |
0,954 :
1) ;
2) 15000 ..;
3) , 500 ..;
4) 30 000 .., 10%.
4.
1. 1995-2004 . .
, . . | 1163,5 | 1113,7 | 1100,3 | 1094,1 | 1187,8 | 1231,4 | 1253,1 | 1308,1 | 1330,5 | 1287,7 |
: , , . , 2005 95%.
. ( ) ( ) . ( ) ( ).
(47), (48).
(47) (48)
: > 0 , < 0 , = 0 .
3- 4- 5. , . : = 124,2 = 124,2.
(49), (50).
(49) (50)
, 1. , , , .
|
|
5- 6- 5.
, , 0. , , . 7- 9- 5, 8- 10- . , . : =1,107 =1,107.
5.
. , (. .3):
.3. .
, , (17): = 12070,2 / 10 = 1207,02 (. .). 1995-2004 1207,02 . .
( ), .
(51). (52).
= (51) = (52)
: , . , . = 124,2/9 = 13,8, 13,8 . .
. (53), (54):
= = (53) = (54)
, 1 : , . = = 1,0114, 1,0114 .
1 , , . = 1,0114 1 = 0,0114, 1,14%.
( ) ( , , .), , , . , . , , .. :
|
|
, (55)
; ; t ( ). :
; ; ; ; .
( ) Y(t) (.4):
.4. .
, .
, () ( , t) () . :
. (56)
. (55) . . , .. , S . , S , .
:
2, y , , :
(57)
n ; t ; y .
, , , . , (, ) . 1, 2, 3 .., () 1, 2, 3 .. () 1 +1, , , : , , ..
( ) = 0, , , :
(58)
, . (58) , 6.
, = 12070,2/10 = 1207,02 = 4195/330 = 12,7121. =1207,02+12,7121t. 6- 6 , . (-) (.5).
.5. .
( ) () () . , F F ( 1). :
, (59)
|
|
k () ; , (61); (62), (60) :
; (60)
; (61)
. (62)
. . F > F , .
6.
y | t | t2 | yt | (y )2 | ( )2 | (y )2 | ||
1163,5 | -9 | -10471,5 | 1092,611 | 5025,263 | 13089,44 | 1893,9904 | ||
1113,7 | -7 | -7795,9 | 1118,035 | 18,79354 | 7918,3033 | 8708,6224 | ||
1100,3 | -5 | -5501,5 | 1143,459 | 1862,733 | 4039,9506 | 11389,1584 | ||
1094,1 | -3 | -3282,3 | 1168,884 | 5592,592 | 1454,3822 | 12750,9264 | ||
1187,8 | -1 | -1187,8 | 1194,308 | 42,35249 | 161,59803 | 369,4084 | ||
1231,4 | 1231,4 | 1219,732 | 136,1394 | 161,59803 | 594,3844 | |||
1253,1 | 3759,3 | 1245,156 | 63,10136 | 1454,3822 | 2123,3664 | |||
1308,1 | 6540,5 | 1270,581 | 1407,705 | 4039,9506 | 10217,1664 | |||
1330,5 | 9313,5 | 1296,005 | 1189,915 | 7918,3033 | 15247,3104 | |||
1287,7 | 11589,3 | 1321,429 | 1137,652 | 13089,44 | 6509,2624 | |||
12070,2 | 12070,2 | 16476,25 | 53327,348 | 69803,596 |
(59), 7- 6 , 8- . (59) , n (n ): F = 53327,348*8/(16476,25*1) = 25,893 > F, , (F = 5,32 1 1- [ = k 1 = 1] 8- [ = n k = 8]).
- , , . (63):
, (63)
, ; =n1 ( 2); , (64):
, (64)
() ; n ; k () .
2005 = (10,95) = 0,05. (64): = = 45,38. = 2,2622 = 10 1=9.
2005 95% (63):
Y2005 =(1207,02+12,7121*11) 2,2622*45,38 1244,19< Y2005 <1449,51 (..).