, . , , ( PMI) , , ; , . TANKAN .
, - , . , , .., , - ( ) . - - , .
(diffusion index) , " : , , , , .."; : "", "", " ".
DI = (% "") + 0,5 *(% " ");
, , PMI TANKAN. , : - (expansion) (recession), a (recovery). , , ( ).
, 1991 . PMI 1998 , 350 : (output), (new orders), (employment), (supplier's delivery times), (stocks of goods purchases). 1999 PMI -, 11 (EU PMI). ( 34 000 ) PMI NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Managers), 1931 ; , , 300 .
|
|
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), NAPM. NAPN PMI, , - ( "higher), (lower), (unchanged) :
- (employment),
- (commodity prices),
- (vendor deliveries),
- (production),
- (inventories),
- (new orders from customers),
- (new export and import orders),
- (order backlogs, 1993 .).
( "higher unchanged), , PMI; 1994 PMI :
PMI = 0,30 DI(new orders) + 0,25 DI(production) +
0,20 DI(employment) + + 0,15 DI(deliveries) + 0,10 DI(inventories)
PMI. PMI - . :
- ;
- 50% - ;
- 44% - .
PMI , . , PMI, , , . 40- , PMI 7 - 3 .
. 14.2. N I
PMI 50 , 44 . , PMI , 35, 4 44, . , PMI ( ), ( , 82% , - ).
PMI . , 1980-1992 .. , PMI (IP - industrial production) :
|
|
IP = 0,52 PMI[-2] - 23,4;
, , PMI = 45,9 (1=0). PMI :
GDP = 0,317 PMI[-1] - 13,9.
, Dl(prices) .
, , , [0,100]. , , , NPR (net percentage rising), "higher lower, DI
NPR = 2 (DI - 50).
PMI . - TANKAN - . , , , - , , . TANKAN .
, , , PMI .